National Science Bowl Association · Season 4

NSBA4 Draft Value Analysis

Pick-by-pick steal/reach grades for all 14 teams — ability-adjusted draft board with IRT theta and PPTF signals

90 Total Picks
14 Teams
+61 Best Value
-70 Biggest Reach
Draft Value Extremes
🟢 Biggest Steals
Santhosh B +61
sumin · Pick #78 · Ability Rank #17 COMBINE
Combine score (raw 15, de-biked θ=0.78) is flagged as unreliable — staff confirmed cheating during the NSBA4 combine (buzzing on overheard answers, leaking in chat), making his true ability unknown and likely lower.
Shaun I +59
ChessFun · Pick #70 · Ability Rank #11 COMBINE
Combine-only math+phys specialist (de-biked θ = 0.93) with no game history; HS player self-reporting calc weakness despite strong physics combine scores.
Uddip K +59
mingle/Yunyi · Pick #75 · Ability Rank #16 COMBINE
Combine-only math+phys specialist with de-biked theta 0.79; high study engagement and low tanking risk per Discord signals, entering college from HS.
Jacob L +53
cryo · Pick #90 · Ability Rank #37 COMBINE
Jacob Stevens (P0289) is a combine-only player from NSBA1 with a de-biked theta of -0.01 (exactly average), drafted 31st overall by Ctong; his best subjects are bio and chem.
Daniel Y +43
xpoes · Pick #55 · Ability Rank #12 COMBINE
Daniel Y is a combine-only ESS/CS specialist (debiked θ = 0.89) with no NSBA game record; no game production data is available to validate their combine score.
Shubam V +43
Fez_Keyreb · Pick #73 · Ability Rank #30 COMBINE
Shubam V (P0673, handle "The Shubaminator") is a combine-only player in NSBA4 2026 with a de-biked theta of 0.23, strongest in CS, with no game record to validate production.
Nathaniel O +41
Fez_Keyreb · Pick #68 · Ability Rank #27 COMBINE
Nathaniel Ou (P0412) is a combine-only player drafted 41st overall in NSBA3 with a de-biked theta of 0.27, showing modest above-average ability led by physics and CS.
Dennis J +40
dan.k.memes · Pick #48 · Ability Rank #8 COMBINE
Dennis J is a combine-only player (no game record) with a de-biked theta of 1.16 and clear strengths in CS (θ 1.40) and Physics (θ 1.31), making him a solid mid-round target with upside if he plays.
🔴 Biggest Reaches
Lishan P -70
dan.k.memes · Pick #9 · Ability Rank #79 GAME
Lishan Prado is a chemistry-only specialist (5/8 correct buzzes, all in chem) whose raw PPTF of 0.13 is inflated by a dominant team context — the contestation-adjusted figure drops to -0.56, making her a replacement-level contributor.
Aldric B -60
Fez_Keyreb · Pick #17 · Ability Rank #77 GAME
Aldric B (P0050) is a pure ESS specialist who peaked at 0.30 PPTF in NSBA1 but regressed to 0.15 in NSBA2, with negligible adjusted production (-0.01) suggesting his raw numbers are largely a usage artifact.
Kensuke O -58
jonathan · Pick #25 · Ability Rank #83 GAME
Kensuke scored all his career points in ESS across just 2 games in NSBA3 (PPTF 0.08, WS rank 68/82), projecting as a depth/replacement-level player with no other active subjects.
Advik S -52
Fez_Keyreb · Pick #12 · Ability Rank #64 COMBINE
Combine-only player with de-biked theta of -0.86 (NSBA3 2025); bio and math are his best subjects, and he was drafted 34th overall in round 4 by fishnu.
Roshan A -52
mingle/Yunyi · Pick #19 · Ability Rank #71 GAME
Pure ESS (geology) specialist with near-zero contribution in all other subjects; NSBA4 combine suggests emerging math/phys potential but game production remains narrow and low-volume.
Shannon I -50
cryo · Pick #34 · Ability Rank #84 GAME
Shannon's raw PPTF of 0.08 in NSBA3 overstates her value (adjusted -0.83 via contestation model), but her de-biked combine theta improved sharply to +0.15 in NSBA4 with a standout chem sub-score of 1.78, signaling real untapped potential.
Edward C -49
cryo · Pick #23 · Ability Rank #72 GAME
Edward C is a math+physics specialist with a low 0.16 PPTF (rank 61/82) in NSBA3 and a high neg rate (37.5%), but his de-biked combine theta has improved to +0.80 in NSBA4, signaling latent ability not yet in game production.
Varyan J -48
dan.k.memes · Pick #37 · Ability Rank #85 GAME
Varyan J (P0608) had minimal game production in NSBA3 (PPTF 0.08, 59/82 WS rank) concentrated in physics, but their nsba4 combine de-biked theta jumped to 0.83, suggesting meaningful improvement heading into NSBA4.
Team Draft Grades
James W
7 picks
A+
Avg Value: +14.8
Best pick: Kavin A (+39)
Worst pick: Jake R (-7)
GidTheKid2
7 picks
A
Avg Value: +8.2
Best pick: Abhinav A (+17)
Worst pick: William W (-3)
xpoes
7 picks
A
Avg Value: +8.9
Best pick: Daniel Y (+43)
Worst pick: Nihar B (-39)
anurag
7 picks
A
Avg Value: +9.5
Best pick: Travis D (+33)
Worst pick: Sanjay O (-13)
(Stitch)^2
7 picks
B
Avg Value: +4.3
Best pick: Henry L (+30)
Worst pick: Praneel A (-40)
Connor Chang
8 picks
B
Avg Value: +2.7
Best pick: Ishan A (+37)
Worst pick: Daniel L (-27)
cryo
7 picks
C
Avg Value: -3.6
Best pick: Jacob L (+53)
Worst pick: Shannon I (-50)
sumin
7 picks
C
Avg Value: -0.8
Best pick: Santhosh B (+61)
Worst pick: Angelina Y (-27)
czz
7 picks
C
Avg Value: -2.2
Best pick: Rehan K (+31)
Worst pick: Vishnu M (-20)
Fez_Keyreb
7 picks
C
Avg Value: -4.0
Best pick: Shubam V (+43)
Worst pick: Aldric B (-60)
dan.k.memes
7 picks
D
Avg Value: -6.2
Best pick: Dennis J (+40)
Worst pick: Lishan P (-70)
ChessFun
7 picks
D
Avg Value: -6.2
Best pick: Shaun I (+59)
Worst pick: Andrew W (-43)
jonathan
7 picks
F
Avg Value: -10.8
Best pick: Sid S (+37)
Worst pick: Kensuke O (-58)
mingle/Yunyi
7 picks
F
Avg Value: -15.2
Best pick: Uddip K (+59)
Worst pick: Roshan A (-52)
Full Draft Board
Value Score Formula
Big Steal (> +5)
Steal (+1 to +5)
Fair (-1 to +1)
Reach (-1 to -5)
Big Reach (< -5)
Value = Draft Pick # − Ability Rank  |  Positive = Drafted later than ability warrants (steal)  |  Negative = Drafted earlier (reach)
90 players
# Player Team Data Tier Subjects Score Ability Rank Value