{
  "meta": {
    "league": "NSBA4 2026",
    "week": "Game 1 (Week 1)",
    "generated": "2026-06-15",
    "lines_for": "prediction markets (win probability, point spread, game total)",
    "line_convention": "NSBA scores/margins/totals are always even (scoring is +4/-4/+10). Spreads are set on ODD integers and totals on .5 so neither can ever push (tie).",
    "method": "Subject-resolved tossup-contest engine (Dixon-Coles/KenPom analogue) blended 0.7 with market-implied ratings. Ratings are jointly inverted from BOTH the conference-win and top-4 futures via round-robin simulation. Single-game outcome SD ~56 pts.",
    "key_caveats": [
      "Week 1: no NSBA4 game data yet. Win probabilities are intentionally modest (0.20-0.65) because backtest shows roster talent explains only ~6% of single-game margin variance.",
      "Totals anchored to NSBA3 regular-season scoring (mean 160); 'solvable by majority' packets could push higher. Total is the lowest-confidence number.",
      "Spreads are large because NSBA games are high-variance blowouts (margin SD ~57).",
      "Rosters modeled at full strength (no availability adjustment).",
      "Home advantage = home team removes one toss-up/bonus pair of the away team's best subject (no separate baseline home-points edge).",
      "Top-4 futures revealed the conferences are far more balanced than the conference-win futures implied (e.g. ChessFun/cryo are competitive, not cellar teams), so spreads are modest and no morale-shading is applied.",
      "West conference-win and top-4 markets disagreed (esp. cryo, czz); ratings are a joint hedge between them."
    ],
    "model_vs_market_flags": [
      "mingle/Yunyi: market makes them East favorite but the roster/combine engine ranks them ~12th overall; the engine fades them slightly vs xpoes.",
      "cryo: the live top-4 market rates cryo 2nd-best in the West (61% top-4) while both the conference-win futures AND the roster/combine model rate cryo near the bottom. Largest model-vs-market disagreement; cryo lines carry the most uncertainty."
    ],
    "scale": {
      "single_game_margin_sd": 56,
      "total_anchor": "nsba3_regular_mean_160"
    }
  },
  "market_implied_ratings": {
    "GidTheKid2": -1.6,
    "anurag": 5.4,
    "sumin": -20.5,
    "dan.k.memes": -15.3,
    "mingle/Yunyi": 27.9,
    "Fez_Keyreb": -7.2,
    "xpoes": 11.2,
    "Connor Chang": 5.3,
    "jonathan": 0.4,
    "cryo": 1.9,
    "czz": -5.1,
    "James W": 9.7,
    "(Stitch)^2": -9.0,
    "ChessFun": -3.3
  },
  "games": [
    {
      "matchup": "GidTheKid2 @ sumin",
      "conference": "East",
      "home": "sumin",
      "away": "GidTheKid2",
      "win_prob": {
        "sumin": 0.405,
        "GidTheKid2": 0.595
      },
      "moneyline": {
        "sumin": "+147",
        "GidTheKid2": "-147"
      },
      "spread": {
        "favorite": "GidTheKid2",
        "line": -13,
        "underdog": "sumin",
        "home_line": -13
      },
      "total": 159.5,
      "home_removes_subject": "Math",
      "opening_line_shaded": false,
      "raw_model_fair_value": {
        "home_spread": -13.5,
        "win_prob": {
          "sumin": 0.405,
          "GidTheKid2": 0.595
        }
      },
      "confidence": {
        "win_spread": "moderate",
        "total": "low"
      }
    },
    {
      "matchup": "mingle/Yunyi @ xpoes",
      "conference": "East",
      "home": "xpoes",
      "away": "mingle/Yunyi",
      "win_prob": {
        "xpoes": 0.424,
        "mingle/Yunyi": 0.576
      },
      "moneyline": {
        "xpoes": "+136",
        "mingle/Yunyi": "-136"
      },
      "spread": {
        "favorite": "mingle/Yunyi",
        "line": -11,
        "underdog": "xpoes",
        "home_line": -11
      },
      "total": 149.5,
      "home_removes_subject": "Physics",
      "opening_line_shaded": false,
      "raw_model_fair_value": {
        "home_spread": -10.8,
        "win_prob": {
          "xpoes": 0.424,
          "mingle/Yunyi": 0.576
        }
      },
      "confidence": {
        "win_spread": "moderate",
        "total": "low"
      }
    },
    {
      "matchup": "anurag @ dan.k.memes",
      "conference": "East",
      "home": "dan.k.memes",
      "away": "anurag",
      "win_prob": {
        "dan.k.memes": 0.405,
        "anurag": 0.595
      },
      "moneyline": {
        "dan.k.memes": "+147",
        "anurag": "-147"
      },
      "spread": {
        "favorite": "anurag",
        "line": -13,
        "underdog": "dan.k.memes",
        "home_line": -13
      },
      "total": 153.5,
      "home_removes_subject": "Earth/Space",
      "opening_line_shaded": false,
      "raw_model_fair_value": {
        "home_spread": -13.4,
        "win_prob": {
          "dan.k.memes": 0.405,
          "anurag": 0.595
        }
      },
      "confidence": {
        "win_spread": "moderate",
        "total": "low"
      }
    },
    {
      "matchup": "czz @ (Stitch)^2",
      "conference": "West",
      "home": "(Stitch)^2",
      "away": "czz",
      "win_prob": {
        "(Stitch)^2": 0.491,
        "czz": 0.509
      },
      "moneyline": {
        "(Stitch)^2": "+104",
        "czz": "-104"
      },
      "spread": {
        "favorite": "czz",
        "line": -1,
        "underdog": "(Stitch)^2",
        "home_line": -1
      },
      "total": 149.5,
      "home_removes_subject": "Computer Science",
      "opening_line_shaded": false,
      "raw_model_fair_value": {
        "home_spread": -1.3,
        "win_prob": {
          "(Stitch)^2": 0.491,
          "czz": 0.509
        }
      },
      "confidence": {
        "win_spread": "moderate",
        "total": "low"
      }
    },
    {
      "matchup": "James W @ cryo",
      "conference": "West",
      "home": "cryo",
      "away": "James W",
      "win_prob": {
        "cryo": 0.459,
        "James W": 0.541
      },
      "moneyline": {
        "cryo": "+118",
        "James W": "-118"
      },
      "spread": {
        "favorite": "James W",
        "line": -5,
        "underdog": "cryo",
        "home_line": -5
      },
      "total": 156.5,
      "home_removes_subject": "Math",
      "opening_line_shaded": false,
      "raw_model_fair_value": {
        "home_spread": -5.7,
        "win_prob": {
          "cryo": 0.459,
          "James W": 0.541
        }
      },
      "confidence": {
        "win_spread": "moderate",
        "total": "low"
      }
    },
    {
      "matchup": "Connor Chang @ ChessFun",
      "conference": "West",
      "home": "ChessFun",
      "away": "Connor Chang",
      "win_prob": {
        "ChessFun": 0.451,
        "Connor Chang": 0.549
      },
      "moneyline": {
        "ChessFun": "+122",
        "Connor Chang": "-122"
      },
      "spread": {
        "favorite": "Connor Chang",
        "line": -7,
        "underdog": "ChessFun",
        "home_line": -7
      },
      "total": 153.5,
      "home_removes_subject": "Earth/Space",
      "opening_line_shaded": false,
      "raw_model_fair_value": {
        "home_spread": -6.8,
        "win_prob": {
          "ChessFun": 0.451,
          "Connor Chang": 0.549
        }
      },
      "confidence": {
        "win_spread": "moderate",
        "total": "low"
      }
    }
  ]
}