Top 4 in each conference make the $1,000 playoff. Only one team even needs help — everyone else still controls their own fate.
Every remaining conference game simulated 20,000 times through our game model; standings broken by
head-to-head, then point differential. Green = current top 4, gold = on the bubble, red = long shot.
← back to the Week 4 recap
East Conference
#
Team
Rec
PD
Playoff
Path
1
mingle/Yunyi
3-1
+184
100%
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
in the driver's seat
2
sumin
3-1
+130
99%
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
in the driver's seat
3
dan.k.memes
3-1
-74
83%
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░
win out (2 left) and you're in
4
xpoes
2-3
-8
47%
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░
win out -> 93% (need a little help)
5
Fez_Keyreb
1-3
-12
29%
▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
win out (2 left) and you're in
6
anurag
1-3
-54
22%
▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
win out -> 83% (need a little help)
7
GidTheKid2
2-3
-166
20%
▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
even winning out is only 40% -- need lots of help
6 games left in the conference: Fez_Keyreb v anurag · Fez_Keyreb v xpoes · GidTheKid2 v dan.k.memes · anurag v mingle/Yunyi · dan.k.memes v sumin · mingle/Yunyi v sumin
West Conference
#
Team
Rec
PD
Playoff
Path
1
cryo
3-2
+174
100%
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
in the driver's seat
2
James W
3-1
+166
98%
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓
in the driver's seat
3
czz
3-2
-74
67%
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░
win out (1 left) and you're in
4
ChessFun
2-2
-42
60%
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░
win out (2 left) and you're in
5
(Stitch)^2
2-2
-168
31%
▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
win out (2 left) and you're in
6
Connor Chang
1-3
+22
26%
▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
win out -> 96% (need a little help)
7
jonathan
1-3
-78
18%
▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
win out -> 82% (need a little help)
6 games left in the conference: (Stitch)^2 v ChessFun · (Stitch)^2 v James W · ChessFun v czz · Connor Chang v James W · Connor Chang v jonathan · cryo v jonathan
East — Scenarios & Storylines
IN CONTROLmingle/YunyiControls its own destiny. Win out (2 left) and it's in — no help required.
CLINCHEDsuminClinched a playoff berth. In no matter what happens the rest of the way.
CLINCHEDdan.k.memesClinched a playoff berth. In no matter what happens the rest of the way.
NEEDS HELPxpoesAlive, but needs help. Must win out first (~93% in if it does). sumin, dan.k.memes finish ahead no matter what. Then it's in if any one of: mingle/Yunyi loses out (to anurag and sumin); GidTheKid2 loses out (to dan.k.memes).
IN CONTROLFez_KeyrebControls its own destiny. Win out (2 left) and it's in — no help required.
NEEDS HELPanuragAlive, but needs a lot of help. Even winning out it's only ~83% — it needs several of the teams above it to stumble. dan.k.memes finishes ahead no matter what.
NEEDS HELPGidTheKid2Alive, but needs help. Must win out first (~40% in if it does). mingle/Yunyi, sumin finish ahead no matter what. Then it's in if any one of: dan.k.memes loses out (to sumin); Fez_Keyreb wins no more than 1 of its remaining 2.
West — Scenarios & Storylines
IN CONTROLcryoControls its own destiny. Win out (1 left) and it's in — no help required.
IN CONTROLJames WControls its own destiny. Win out (2 left) and it's in — no help required.
IN CONTROLczzControls its own destiny. Win out (1 left) and it's in — no help required.
IN CONTROLChessFunControls its own destiny. Win out (2 left) and it's in — no help required.
IN CONTROL(Stitch)^2Controls its own destiny. Win out (2 left) and it's in — no help required.
NEEDS HELPConnor ChangAlive, but needs help. Must win out first (~96% in if it does). cryo, czz finish ahead no matter what. Then it's in if any one of: ChessFun loses out (to (Stitch)^2 and czz).
NEEDS HELPjonathanAlive, but needs help. Must win out first (~82% in if it does). James W, czz finish ahead no matter what. Then it's in if any one of: (Stitch)^2 loses out (to ChessFun and James W); ChessFun wins no more than 1 of its remaining 2.
🧮 How to read it. "Playoff %" is how often a team finishes top-4 across 20,000 simulated
rest-of-seasons. The Scenarios section is exact, not simulated — computed by brute-forcing every remaining win/loss
combination and ranking with the real tiebreaks (head-to-head, then point differential). Most teams control their own
destiny (win out and you're in); a bubble team must run the table AND get help, and the help listed is the tightest sufficient
condition. The season is a 7-team round-robin; each team has 2–3 conference games left.