THE TAPE · WEEK 2 CLOSE · MARK-TO-MARKET

Week 2: The Chalk Prints Back

The home book went 5–1 after Week 1's massacre. The new villain: blow-ups.

A week after the consensus longs went 1–5, the favorites flipped the tape and printed 5–1 — the only "upset" was a pick'em that closed by $6M. The P&L spreads were still loud (avg $33M), but the levers moved. Week 1 was decided by monetization and books off the desk; Week 2 added a new one: blow-ups. Thirty-four of them across six sessions, and they didn't just dent the print — they decided who lost.

📈 Three things the headline P&L hides:
Blow-ups were the villain — and they cost the book. The three desks that blew up most all lost money: jonathan booked 7 in its debut ($28M handed back on a $54M session), cryo's 6 blow-ups turned a winnable tape into a $14M loss, and anurag's 5 bled a second straight down day. Discipline, not flow, was the difference at the bottom of the slate.
Who's on the desk cut both ways. Week 1's headline was Harry G off the desk and GidTheKid2 marked down $118M; he traded back in for 6 winning tickets and Gid printed $112M — roughly a $158M week-over-week swing on a single returning PM. But the desk thinned out elsewhere: xpoes ran its loss with top PM Rohan G off the desk — barely a three-trader book — and even mingle's +$80M rout came with Week-1 leader Theenash S off the desk. Check who's on the desk before you read the P&L — staffing is still the loudest lever on the Street.
Capture is still the alpha — and it's fixable. Winners closed ~58%, losers ~46%. Exhibit A: mingle/Yunyi went from a 22% capture disaster in Week 1 to 69% — and a $48M loss became an $80M win. The exceptions prove the rule: jonathan closed 62% and still lost (those 7 blow-ups), and Gid won at just 46% on sheer ticket volume.

The Sessions

Street had it at czz +1 ✓
czz $92M$86M Connor Chang
Driver: a Rates sweep in the marquee

The Trade of the Week delivered. Kian D (6 tickets, fastest fill in the building at word 17) and vishnu m (6 tickets, zero blow-ups) traded size, and Connor actually won three desks — Credit 3–0, Systematic 3–1, Commodities 3–1. But czz answered with a Rates sweep (4–0) and the back-end edge that's becoming its signature: 67% capture to Connor's 42%. Connor is now 0–2 — both to the West's best books — and is trading well below book value on its record.

winning tickets [Connor v czz] EQ 2-1 CR 3-0 SYS 3-1 CMD 3-1 RATES 0-4 DERIV 1-2 · capture 42% v 67%
Street had it at ChessFun −3 ✓
ChessFun $84M$70M cryo
Driver: cryo's itchy trigger

Two of Week 1's most convincing winners, and the difference was self-inflicted: cryo blew up six times to ChessFun's four. cryo actually swept Commodities (3–0) and took Equities, but ChessFun owned the science desks — Credit 3–1, Derivatives 3–1 — and closed a touch better (55% v 50%). Eric L (5 tickets) and dynomite kept the ChessFun book humming. The hottest desk on the Street is 2–0; cryo's headcount is real but its discipline isn't.

winning tickets [cryo v ChessFun] EQ 3-1 CR 1-3 SYS 1-2 CMD 3-0 RATES 1-2 DERIV 1-3 · capture 50% v 55%
Street had it at James W −1 ✓
James W $108M$54M jonathan
Driver: a debut that came apart

The preseason A+ answered its Week-1 stumble with a statement. jonathan, opening its year, actually closed better (62% v 50%) — but it didn't matter, because it blew up SEVEN times. Take $28M off a $54M session and the math is brutal. Sohil (5 tickets) and a quick, clean akhil (word 20, no blow-ups) ran the book. James W is back; jonathan has one obvious line item to fix.

winning tickets [jonathan v James W] EQ 1-3 CR 1-2 SYS 2-1 CMD 1-2 RATES 2-2 DERIV 1-2 · capture 62% v 50%
Street had it at mingle −1 ✓
mingle/Yunyi $130M$50M Fez_Keyreb
Driver: the redemption arc

Remember mingle's 2-for-9 capture catastrophe in Week 1? Gone. They closed 9 of 13 (69%), swept Equities 4–0, and buried Fez_Keyreb — opening its year — by eighty, and they booked the whole +$80M blowout with Week-1 leader Theenash S off the desk — a bench-depth flex. roshan was everywhere: 8 winning tickets, $32M, the best book of the week (aggression and all — he blew up three times and still lapped the field). Fix the one line item that's killing you and this is what the ceiling looks like.

winning tickets [Fez v mingle] EQ 0-4 CR 1-2 SYS 1-2 CMD 3-1 RATES 1-2 DERIV 0-2 · capture 50% v 69%
Street had it at dan −1 ✓
dan.k.memes $60M$48M xpoes
Driver: a thin tape — and xpoes' capture woes (again)

The rock fight of the day: seven no-bid looks (30%) made this a grind, and on a session with little to go around, efficiency was everything. The bigger problem for xpoes: top PM Rohan G was off the desk, leaving them running barely a three-trader book. That reframes the loss — it wasn't just weak capture, they were short-staffed. dan swept Equities and Credit (2–0 each) and out-closed xpoes 50% to 25% — and that 25% is no fluke, it's the second straight week xpoes left capture on the table. dan.k.memes is a quiet 2–0, printing the smart, ugly way every time.

winning tickets [dan v xpoes] EQ 2-0 CR 2-0 SYS 1-1 CMD 2-2 RATES 1-3 DERIV 0-2 · capture 50% v 25%
Street had it at GidTheKid2 −1 ✓
GidTheKid2 $112M$66M anurag
Driver: the #1-overall PM finally traded

The most-watched book off the desk all season came back online. Harry G (meduh), the No. 1 overall pick who was off the desk in Week 1, finally traded — 6 winning tickets — as GidTheKid2 ran a Derivatives-desk sweep (4–0) and rolled. This is the book they drafted: with the headliner back and William W chipping in, Gid out-traded anurag 13–9 tickets. anurag actually closed better (56% v 46%) but undid itself with five blow-ups — the same risk leak that's now cost it two straight down days. The key-man watch is over; the East just got more dangerous.

winning tickets [anurag v Gid] EQ 2-1 CR 1-3 SYS 3-1 CMD 2-2 RATES 1-2 DERIV 0-4 · capture 56% v 46%

League Table

All 14 books marked to market after Week 2, both desks — top to bottom.

EAST

#BookThe Mark
1dan.k.memes2–0 and never pretty — out-closes you, grinds you down. The East's quiet standard.
2suminDark, still 1–0 off a $138M statement. Unbeaten and untested — we'll mark them soon.
3GidTheKid2The key-man watch is over — the star PM is back on the desk, and the book answered with a +$112M statement. This is what they drafted. Dangerous now.
4mingle/Yunyi1–1, but the $130M eruption and a 22%→69% capture turnaround is the scariest trend in the East.
5xpoes1–1, and ran the loss with top PM Rohan G off the desk — barely a three-trader book. But 25% capture for a SECOND straight week is its own problem. Loads of headcount, leaking P&L.
6anurag0–2. Closes fine both weeks, but the blow-ups (5 more here) keep bleeding the book. Fixable, still in the red.
7Fez_Keyreb0–1, run off the floor $50M–$130M in its open. Long road ahead.

WEST

#BookThe Mark
1ChessFun2–0, beat cryo and Connor. Still the hottest book on the Street — and tidy enough to close the ugly ones.
2czz2–0 and won the marquee. vishnu m is a problem; only P&L spread separates them from #1.
3James W1–1 — the preseason A+ answered with a $108M demolition. Back on schedule.
4cryo1–1. Gave one away on six blow-ups. The six-deep headcount is real; the discipline isn't there yet.
5Connor Chang0–2 — but both losses are to the two best books, the latest by $6M. Kian D is elite; the record lies.
6(Stitch)²Dark. 0–1 and still hunting for its first signature print.
7jonathan0–1, debut undone by seven blow-ups. Nowhere to go but up.

The Street

The books got even. After fading the consensus long printed money in Week 1, the chalk went 5–1 — every favorite on the board held except a coin-flip. The marquee czz–Connor opened and closed near 50/50 and resolved by $6M, exactly the nail-biter it was priced as. The blowouts were "expected" winners running it up: mingle, a modest favorite, turned the session into an $80M rout. The takeaway flips Week 1's on its head: the chaos was the overreaction. Reputation didn't print Week 1, but it sure showed up in Week 2.

Traders of the Week

🏆 Top PM: roshan (mingle/Yunyi) — $32M printed on 8 winning tickets, the engine of an $80M demolition and the book that carried the desk. Honorable mention to vishnu m (czz): 6 tickets, zero blow-ups, and the clutch hand that closed the only tight tape of the week — and to Harry G (meduh, GidTheKid2), the No. 1 overall PM who traded back onto the desk for 6 winning tickets and single-handedly re-priced the East's most-watched book.
PMDeskP&LTicketsBlow-upsAvg fill (word)
roshanmingle/Yunyi$32M8324
suzukocryo$24M6120
Kian DConnor Chang$24M6217
vishnu mczz$24M6034
SohilJames W$20M5028
Eric LChessFun$20M5027

⚡ Lowest latency: Kian D (word 17) was the quickest fill of the high earners. Risk-limit trouble: edwin h (jonathan) and ishaan k (ChessFun) led the desk with 4 blow-ups apiece — edwin's in that seven-blow-up meltdown, ishaan's in a win, which tells you who could afford it.

The Week Ahead

Week 3 brings the dark books back onto the tape: sumin and (Stitch)² re-open, while mingle/Yunyi and James W go dark. The questions into the open: does the chalk hold a second session after a 5–1 week, and can the bottom of the board stop handing P&L away on blow-ups?

⭐ Trade of the Week
cryo @ czz

The West's clearest contender clash. czz (2–0) hosts cryo (1–1) in a pure style war: vishnu m's range and czz's lethal capture against cryo's six-deep, cover-every-desk headcount. cryo gave away its only loss on six blow-ups — against a book this efficient, it can't afford a repeat. If cryo's depth controls flow it wins; if czz's back end hums, the unbeaten run continues.

(Stitch)² @ Connor Chang
watch: the 0–2 book trading below book value

Connor Chang is winless but has lost only to the two best books in the West, the last by $6M. Kian D is printing like a top-five PM on the Street. Now it draws a (Stitch)² book coming off a dark week and still searching for its first signature session. This is the spot where Connor's record finally catches up to its level — or the panic truly sets in.

ChessFun @ jonathan
watch: the buzz saw meets the debutant

The hottest book on the Street visits the desk that just blew up seven times in its open. If jonathan cleans up the risk-limit breaches it can hang; if not, ChessFun's flow and Eric L's low latency turn it into another long session. A clean read on whether jonathan's debut was nerves or a real problem.

sumin @ anurag  ·  xpoes @ GidTheKid2  ·  dan.k.memes @ Fez_Keyreb
watch: the East sorts itself out

Three East tapes at once. sumin finally gets marked after that $138M statement, against an anurag book desperate to stop bleeding the book on blow-ups (0–2). xpoes carries its two-week capture problem into a date with the newly dangerous GidTheKid2 — the key-man back on the desk and the book trading at a premium. And dan.k.memes, quietly 2–0, draws a Fez_Keyreb book looking to bounce off an $80M thumping. The East's pecking order gets a lot clearer.

👀 On the tape:  • The blow-up count — thirty-four across six sessions last week, and they decided the bottom of the slate.  • Connor's desperation — 0–2 with an elite headliner is a powder keg.  • xpoes' capture — 25% twice running; fix it or fade.  • The returnees — sumin and (Stitch)² shake off dark weeks; rust is real.