{
 "meta": {
  "league": "NSBA4 2026",
  "as_of": "after Week 3",
  "K": 0.4,
  "what": "Per-player per-subject ability ratings (theta). Seed = combine+draft; updated by Week-1 results (direct-buzz attribution) with the nsba3-calibrated learning rate K=0.4. These ratings are the INPUT to the game-simulation engine, not the lines themselves.",
  "caveats": [
   "1 week of data (6 games)",
   "players with games=0 did not play Week 1, still at seed",
   "game 46 (Stitch vs czz) is tossup-level only (no buzz timing)",
   "2 unlinked rookies excluded (no canonical id yet)"
  ]
 },
 "ratings": [
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0346",
   "player": "Kian D",
   "team": "Connor Chang",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.848,
   "overall1": 1.547,
   "delta": 0.699,
   "theta_b": 2.56,
   "theta_ch": 3.634,
   "theta_cs": -0.076,
   "theta_ess": -0.504,
   "theta_m": 1.493,
   "theta_p": 2.174
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0619",
   "player": "Vishnu M",
   "team": "czz",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.577,
   "overall1": 1.117,
   "delta": 0.541,
   "theta_b": 0.166,
   "theta_ch": -0.077,
   "theta_cs": 1.634,
   "theta_ess": 2.217,
   "theta_m": 2.153,
   "theta_p": 0.612
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0581",
   "player": "Suzuko O",
   "team": "cryo",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.623,
   "overall1": 0.917,
   "delta": 0.294,
   "theta_b": 2.467,
   "theta_ch": 0.44,
   "theta_cs": 0.294,
   "theta_ess": 1.249,
   "theta_m": -0.03,
   "theta_p": 1.085
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0043",
   "player": "Akhil B",
   "team": "James W",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": 0.592,
   "overall1": 0.83,
   "delta": 0.238,
   "theta_b": 0.423,
   "theta_ch": 1.452,
   "theta_cs": 0.525,
   "theta_ess": 1.351,
   "theta_m": 0.725,
   "theta_p": 0.501
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0261",
   "player": "Harry G",
   "team": "GidTheKid2",
   "games": 0,
   "overall0": 0.784,
   "overall1": 0.784,
   "delta": 0.0,
   "theta_b": 0.04,
   "theta_ch": 1.097,
   "theta_cs": 1.101,
   "theta_ess": 0.656,
   "theta_m": 1.448,
   "theta_p": 0.364
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0532",
   "player": "Sean F",
   "team": "anurag",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.465,
   "overall1": 0.7,
   "delta": 0.235,
   "theta_b": 2.242,
   "theta_ch": 0.049,
   "theta_cs": 0.827,
   "theta_ess": 0.463,
   "theta_m": -0.023,
   "theta_p": 0.639
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0594",
   "player": "Theenash S",
   "team": "mingle/Yunyi",
   "games": 1,
   "overall0": 0.371,
   "overall1": 0.596,
   "delta": 0.225,
   "theta_b": 1.356,
   "theta_ch": 0.529,
   "theta_cs": 0.131,
   "theta_ess": 0.512,
   "theta_m": 0.142,
   "theta_p": 0.908
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0203",
   "player": "Edwin H",
   "team": "jonathan",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": 0.71,
   "overall1": 0.566,
   "delta": -0.144,
   "theta_b": 1.719,
   "theta_ch": 1.015,
   "theta_cs": -0.503,
   "theta_ess": 0.645,
   "theta_m": -0.345,
   "theta_p": 0.864
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0485",
   "player": "Rohan G",
   "team": "xpoes",
   "games": 1,
   "overall0": 0.473,
   "overall1": 0.553,
   "delta": 0.079,
   "theta_b": 0.153,
   "theta_ch": -0.322,
   "theta_cs": 1.276,
   "theta_ess": 0.824,
   "theta_m": 0.831,
   "theta_p": 0.554
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0219",
   "player": "Eric L",
   "team": "ChessFun",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": 0.24,
   "overall1": 0.527,
   "delta": 0.287,
   "theta_b": 3.21,
   "theta_ch": 1.913,
   "theta_cs": -0.42,
   "theta_ess": -0.502,
   "theta_m": 0.128,
   "theta_p": -1.168
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0262",
   "player": "Harry Gao",
   "team": "GidTheKid2",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": 0.225,
   "overall1": 0.512,
   "delta": 0.287,
   "theta_b": -0.986,
   "theta_ch": 0.036,
   "theta_cs": -0.043,
   "theta_ess": -0.152,
   "theta_m": 1.296,
   "theta_p": 2.919
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0559",
   "player": "Sohil Rathi",
   "team": "James W",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": 0.284,
   "overall1": 0.441,
   "delta": 0.157,
   "theta_b": 0.025,
   "theta_ch": 0.825,
   "theta_cs": 0.268,
   "theta_ess": -0.083,
   "theta_m": 0.979,
   "theta_p": 0.633
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0494",
   "player": "Roshan A",
   "team": "mingle/Yunyi",
   "games": 1,
   "overall0": 0.13,
   "overall1": 0.366,
   "delta": 0.236,
   "theta_b": -0.654,
   "theta_ch": -0.398,
   "theta_cs": 0.443,
   "theta_ess": 0.347,
   "theta_m": 1.134,
   "theta_p": 1.321
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0050",
   "player": "Aldric B",
   "team": "Fez_Keyreb",
   "games": 1,
   "overall0": 0.342,
   "overall1": 0.364,
   "delta": 0.022,
   "theta_b": -0.18,
   "theta_ch": -0.627,
   "theta_cs": 0.577,
   "theta_ess": 2.095,
   "theta_m": -0.176,
   "theta_p": 0.497
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0202",
   "player": "Edward C",
   "team": "cryo",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.03,
   "overall1": 0.361,
   "delta": 0.331,
   "theta_b": -0.127,
   "theta_ch": -0.587,
   "theta_cs": 1.542,
   "theta_ess": 0.212,
   "theta_m": 0.114,
   "theta_p": 1.013
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0452",
   "player": "Praneel A",
   "team": "(Stitch)^2",
   "games": 0,
   "overall0": 0.349,
   "overall1": 0.349,
   "delta": 0.0,
   "theta_b": -0.229,
   "theta_ch": 0.586,
   "theta_cs": -0.341,
   "theta_ess": 1.156,
   "theta_m": 0.268,
   "theta_p": 0.655
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0505",
   "player": "Ryan K",
   "team": "(Stitch)^2",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": 0.394,
   "overall1": 0.337,
   "delta": -0.056,
   "theta_b": 0.382,
   "theta_ch": -0.374,
   "theta_cs": 0.152,
   "theta_ess": -0.229,
   "theta_m": 0.951,
   "theta_p": 1.142
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0608",
   "player": "Varyan J",
   "team": "dan.k.memes",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": -0.018,
   "overall1": 0.316,
   "delta": 0.334,
   "theta_b": -0.652,
   "theta_ch": -0.114,
   "theta_cs": -0.262,
   "theta_ess": 2.249,
   "theta_m": 0.153,
   "theta_p": 0.523
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0283",
   "player": "Ishaan K",
   "team": "ChessFun",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.242,
   "overall1": 0.302,
   "delta": 0.06,
   "theta_b": 0.018,
   "theta_ch": -0.119,
   "theta_cs": 0.517,
   "theta_ess": 1.246,
   "theta_m": -0.133,
   "theta_p": 0.283
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0458",
   "player": "pyrrolysine",
   "team": "czz",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.545,
   "overall1": 0.276,
   "delta": -0.269,
   "theta_b": 0.312,
   "theta_ch": -1.037,
   "theta_cs": 0.499,
   "theta_ess": 0.002,
   "theta_m": 1.049,
   "theta_p": 0.831
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0524",
   "player": "Sanjay Oruganti",
   "team": "anurag",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.213,
   "overall1": 0.233,
   "delta": 0.02,
   "theta_b": -0.192,
   "theta_ch": 2.582,
   "theta_cs": -0.418,
   "theta_ess": -0.531,
   "theta_m": -0.326,
   "theta_p": 0.282
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0655",
   "player": "William J",
   "team": "GidTheKid2",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.177,
   "overall1": 0.214,
   "delta": 0.036,
   "theta_b": 0.141,
   "theta_ch": 1.34,
   "theta_cs": -0.994,
   "theta_ess": -0.203,
   "theta_m": 0.143,
   "theta_p": 0.855
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0375",
   "player": "Lucas W",
   "team": "sumin",
   "games": 0,
   "overall0": 0.211,
   "overall1": 0.211,
   "delta": 0.0,
   "theta_b": 0.974,
   "theta_ch": 0.485,
   "theta_cs": -0.256,
   "theta_ess": -0.413,
   "theta_m": -1.038,
   "theta_p": 1.516
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0085",
   "player": "Angelina Y",
   "team": "sumin",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": 0.109,
   "overall1": 0.21,
   "delta": 0.101,
   "theta_b": 2.888,
   "theta_ch": -0.606,
   "theta_cs": -0.388,
   "theta_ess": 0.06,
   "theta_m": -0.309,
   "theta_p": -0.386
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0660",
   "player": "Rahib H",
   "team": "Connor Chang",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.131,
   "overall1": 0.208,
   "delta": 0.077,
   "theta_b": -0.377,
   "theta_ch": -0.597,
   "theta_cs": -0.142,
   "theta_ess": 3.583,
   "theta_m": -0.486,
   "theta_p": -0.732
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0653",
   "player": "Jianyu W",
   "team": "xpoes",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": -0.047,
   "overall1": 0.162,
   "delta": 0.209,
   "theta_b": -0.663,
   "theta_ch": 0.923,
   "theta_cs": -0.321,
   "theta_ess": 0.797,
   "theta_m": -0.187,
   "theta_p": 0.424
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0675",
   "player": "Dennis J",
   "team": "dan.k.memes",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.085,
   "overall1": 0.081,
   "delta": -0.005,
   "theta_b": -0.371,
   "theta_ch": -0.776,
   "theta_cs": 1.714,
   "theta_ess": -0.542,
   "theta_m": -0.63,
   "theta_p": 1.089
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0538",
   "player": "Selena Y",
   "team": "dan.k.memes",
   "games": 0,
   "overall0": 0.077,
   "overall1": 0.077,
   "delta": 0.0,
   "theta_b": 1.844,
   "theta_ch": -0.442,
   "theta_cs": 0.002,
   "theta_ess": 0.121,
   "theta_m": -0.014,
   "theta_p": -1.05
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0076",
   "player": "Andrew W",
   "team": "ChessFun",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": -0.098,
   "overall1": 0.066,
   "delta": 0.164,
   "theta_b": -0.26,
   "theta_ch": 0.036,
   "theta_cs": 0.283,
   "theta_ess": -0.366,
   "theta_m": -0.051,
   "theta_p": 0.757
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0553",
   "player": "Sid S",
   "team": "jonathan",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": 0.062,
   "overall1": 0.063,
   "delta": 0.002,
   "theta_b": -0.702,
   "theta_ch": 0.202,
   "theta_cs": -0.587,
   "theta_ess": 0.09,
   "theta_m": 0.635,
   "theta_p": 0.743
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0323",
   "player": "Justin K",
   "team": "Fez_Keyreb",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": 0.095,
   "overall1": 0.051,
   "delta": -0.044,
   "theta_b": 0.508,
   "theta_ch": 0.715,
   "theta_cs": 0.055,
   "theta_ess": -1.04,
   "theta_m": 0.22,
   "theta_p": -0.155
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0544",
   "player": "Shaun I",
   "team": "ChessFun",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": 0.041,
   "overall1": 0.038,
   "delta": -0.003,
   "theta_b": 0.71,
   "theta_ch": -0.168,
   "theta_cs": -0.309,
   "theta_ess": -0.372,
   "theta_m": 0.002,
   "theta_p": 0.366
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0603",
   "player": "Travis D",
   "team": "anurag",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.012,
   "overall1": 0.031,
   "delta": 0.019,
   "theta_b": -0.219,
   "theta_ch": -0.344,
   "theta_cs": 0.245,
   "theta_ess": 1.864,
   "theta_m": -0.371,
   "theta_p": -0.987
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0113",
   "player": "Aryan B",
   "team": "jonathan",
   "games": 0,
   "overall0": 0.028,
   "overall1": 0.028,
   "delta": 0.0,
   "theta_b": 1.0,
   "theta_ch": -0.028,
   "theta_cs": 0.542,
   "theta_ess": -0.389,
   "theta_m": -0.147,
   "theta_p": -0.807
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0664",
   "player": "Arman A",
   "team": "James W",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": 0.151,
   "overall1": 0.02,
   "delta": -0.131,
   "theta_b": 0.75,
   "theta_ch": -0.067,
   "theta_cs": 0.124,
   "theta_ess": 0.017,
   "theta_m": -0.47,
   "theta_p": -0.236
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0099",
   "player": "Arjun D",
   "team": "(Stitch)^2",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": -0.049,
   "overall1": -0.01,
   "delta": 0.039,
   "theta_b": 1.181,
   "theta_ch": -0.297,
   "theta_cs": -0.255,
   "theta_ess": -0.238,
   "theta_m": -0.238,
   "theta_p": -0.214
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0665",
   "player": "Kavin A",
   "team": "James W",
   "games": 0,
   "overall0": -0.015,
   "overall1": -0.015,
   "delta": 0.0,
   "theta_b": 0.477,
   "theta_ch": -0.06,
   "theta_cs": -0.288,
   "theta_ess": -0.341,
   "theta_m": -0.144,
   "theta_p": 0.267
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0181",
   "player": "Daniel Lu",
   "team": "Connor Chang",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": -0.062,
   "overall1": -0.027,
   "delta": 0.035,
   "theta_b": -0.902,
   "theta_ch": -0.128,
   "theta_cs": 1.444,
   "theta_ess": -0.451,
   "theta_m": -1.259,
   "theta_p": 1.137
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0098",
   "player": "Arjun",
   "team": "ChessFun",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": 0.0,
   "overall1": -0.031,
   "delta": -0.031,
   "theta_b": -0.178,
   "theta_ch": -0.291,
   "theta_cs": -0.332,
   "theta_ess": -0.293,
   "theta_m": 0.752,
   "theta_p": 0.153
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0226",
   "player": "Ethan Wang",
   "team": "cryo",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": -0.135,
   "overall1": -0.032,
   "delta": 0.103,
   "theta_b": -0.262,
   "theta_ch": 1.617,
   "theta_cs": -0.768,
   "theta_ess": -0.518,
   "theta_m": -0.304,
   "theta_p": 0.044
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0087",
   "player": "Anish A",
   "team": "czz",
   "games": 1,
   "overall0": -0.029,
   "overall1": -0.039,
   "delta": -0.01,
   "theta_b": 0.307,
   "theta_ch": -0.165,
   "theta_cs": -0.095,
   "theta_ess": -0.078,
   "theta_m": -0.087,
   "theta_p": -0.114
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0542",
   "player": "Shannon I",
   "team": "cryo",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": 0.036,
   "overall1": -0.046,
   "delta": -0.083,
   "theta_b": -0.12,
   "theta_ch": 1.787,
   "theta_cs": -0.766,
   "theta_ess": -0.644,
   "theta_m": -0.281,
   "theta_p": -0.254
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0341",
   "player": "Kevin F",
   "team": "sumin",
   "games": 1,
   "overall0": -0.021,
   "overall1": -0.069,
   "delta": -0.048,
   "theta_b": -0.511,
   "theta_ch": -0.138,
   "theta_cs": -0.377,
   "theta_ess": 0.625,
   "theta_m": 0.309,
   "theta_p": -0.322
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0649",
   "player": "William W",
   "team": "GidTheKid2",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": -0.141,
   "overall1": -0.07,
   "delta": 0.071,
   "theta_b": -0.228,
   "theta_ch": 0.869,
   "theta_cs": -0.242,
   "theta_ess": -0.197,
   "theta_m": -0.006,
   "theta_p": -0.615
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0373",
   "player": "Lucas Q",
   "team": "sumin",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": -0.323,
   "overall1": -0.077,
   "delta": 0.246,
   "theta_b": -0.958,
   "theta_ch": 0.509,
   "theta_cs": -0.349,
   "theta_ess": -0.52,
   "theta_m": -0.847,
   "theta_p": 1.702
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0482",
   "player": "Riyan N",
   "team": "anurag",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": -0.235,
   "overall1": -0.079,
   "delta": 0.156,
   "theta_b": -0.094,
   "theta_ch": -0.12,
   "theta_cs": 0.632,
   "theta_ess": -0.222,
   "theta_m": 0.389,
   "theta_p": -1.058
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0159",
   "player": "Chris W",
   "team": "Fez_Keyreb",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": -0.006,
   "overall1": -0.082,
   "delta": -0.076,
   "theta_b": -1.067,
   "theta_ch": -0.389,
   "theta_cs": -0.195,
   "theta_ess": -0.214,
   "theta_m": 1.086,
   "theta_p": 0.286
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0335",
   "player": "Kensuke O",
   "team": "jonathan",
   "games": 2,
   "overall0": -0.153,
   "overall1": -0.086,
   "delta": 0.066,
   "theta_b": -0.423,
   "theta_ch": -0.423,
   "theta_cs": -0.308,
   "theta_ess": 0.707,
   "theta_m": -0.575,
   "theta_p": 0.505
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0366",
   "player": "Lishan Prado",
   "team": "dan.k.memes",
   "games": 3,
   "overall0": -0.321,
   "overall1": -0.092,
   "delta": 0.229,
   "theta_b": -0.576,
   "theta_ch": 1.451,
   "theta_cs": -0.788,
   "theta_ess": -0.247,
   "theta_m": 0.035,
   "theta_p": -0.426
  },
  {
   "canonical_id": "P0267",
   "player": "Henry Lu",
   "team": "(Stitch)^2",
   "games": 1,
   "overall0": 0.0,
   "overall1": -0.096,
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