{
 "meta": {
  "league": "NSBA4 2026",
  "week": "Week 2",
  "method": "Post-Week-1 player ratings -> subject-resolved tossup-contest simulation -> home-court category ban -> Normal margin/total. Model-only (no market blend); the per-game markets are untraded platform seeds.",
  "line_convention": "NSBA scores are always even, so spreads sit on ODD integers and totals on .5 -> never push.",
  "home_court": "Home removes one tossup of the category that most helps it (usually the away team's strongest); soft softmax over bans (lambda=1, a prior until actual bans are observed).",
  "byes": [
   "sumin",
   "(Stitch)^2"
  ],
  "caveats": [
   "Rosters = full drafted roster; players without a Week-1 rating use their combine ability (cross-season proxy). A handful of unmapped/no-ability roster slots are still excluded.",
   "jonathan and Fez_Keyreb had the Week-1 bye, so they are still at the combine+draft seed.",
   "Home-court effect is modest here: the contest beta is still small, so removing one tossup moves the line only a little. Week 1 hinted home matters more; we won't size it up until we have actual ban data.",
   "Only 1 week of game data: ratings still lean on the combine+draft seed.",
   "Spreads and win-probs are widened by a confidence factor (gain 2.5x) so opening lines aren't pick'em; the raw model is more conservative and the AMM will correct. Totals are NOT widened."
  ]
 },
 "games": [
  {
   "away": "Fez_Keyreb",
   "home": "mingle/Yunyi",
   "p_home": 0.512,
   "p_away": 0.488,
   "spread_home_raw": 1.6,
   "model_margin_home": 0.7,
   "total_raw": 155.3,
   "spread": {
    "favorite": "mingle/Yunyi",
    "line": -1,
    "home_line": -1
   },
   "total": 155.5,
   "likely_home_ban": "Earth/Space",
   "ban_dist": {
    "Biology": 0.16,
    "Chemistry": 0.16,
    "Computer Science": 0.18,
    "Earth/Space": 0.18,
    "Math": 0.17,
    "Physics": 0.15
   }
  },
  {
   "away": "anurag",
   "home": "GidTheKid2",
   "p_home": 0.499,
   "p_away": 0.501,
   "spread_home_raw": -0.1,
   "model_margin_home": -0.0,
   "total_raw": 156.0,
   "spread": {
    "favorite": "anurag",
    "line": -1,
    "home_line": 1
   },
   "total": 156.5,
   "likely_home_ban": "Biology",
   "ban_dist": {
    "Biology": 0.18,
    "Chemistry": 0.16,
    "Computer Science": 0.17,
    "Earth/Space": 0.16,
    "Math": 0.15,
    "Physics": 0.17
   }
  },
  {
   "away": "dan.k.memes",
   "home": "xpoes",
   "p_home": 0.499,
   "p_away": 0.501,
   "spread_home_raw": -0.1,
   "model_margin_home": -0.0,
   "total_raw": 156.0,
   "spread": {
    "favorite": "dan.k.memes",
    "line": -1,
    "home_line": 1
   },
   "total": 155.5,
   "likely_home_ban": "Biology",
   "ban_dist": {
    "Biology": 0.24,
    "Chemistry": 0.15,
    "Computer Science": 0.15,
    "Earth/Space": 0.13,
    "Math": 0.15,
    "Physics": 0.18
   }
  },
  {
   "away": "jonathan",
   "home": "James W",
   "p_home": 0.507,
   "p_away": 0.493,
   "spread_home_raw": 0.9,
   "model_margin_home": 0.4,
   "total_raw": 156.5,
   "spread": {
    "favorite": "James W",
    "line": -1,
    "home_line": -1
   },
   "total": 156.5,
   "likely_home_ban": "Physics",
   "ban_dist": {
    "Biology": 0.17,
    "Chemistry": 0.16,
    "Computer Science": 0.15,
    "Earth/Space": 0.17,
    "Math": 0.16,
    "Physics": 0.18
   }
  },
  {
   "away": "Connor Chang",
   "home": "czz",
   "p_home": 0.491,
   "p_away": 0.509,
   "spread_home_raw": -1.3,
   "model_margin_home": -0.5,
   "total_raw": 160.8,
   "spread": {
    "favorite": "Connor Chang",
    "line": -1,
    "home_line": 1
   },
   "total": 160.5,
   "likely_home_ban": "Chemistry",
   "ban_dist": {
    "Biology": 0.15,
    "Chemistry": 0.24,
    "Computer Science": 0.13,
    "Earth/Space": 0.15,
    "Math": 0.15,
    "Physics": 0.18
   }
  },
  {
   "away": "ChessFun",
   "home": "cryo",
   "p_home": 0.477,
   "p_away": 0.523,
   "spread_home_raw": -3.3,
   "model_margin_home": -1.3,
   "total_raw": 158.3,
   "spread": {
    "favorite": "ChessFun",
    "line": -3,
    "home_line": 3
   },
   "total": 158.5,
   "likely_home_ban": "Biology",
   "ban_dist": {
    "Biology": 0.28,
    "Chemistry": 0.14,
    "Computer Science": 0.14,
    "Earth/Space": 0.15,
    "Math": 0.15,
    "Physics": 0.14
   }
  }
 ]
}