{ "meta": { "league": "NSBA4 2026", "week": "Week 4", "what": "Per-player expected tossups and points for each Week-2 game, plus a projected final score. Each team's projected tossup wins are split among its players by per-subject rating share; the team score adds bonus points (10 x conversion per won tossup) on top of tossup points. The two teams' scores are scaled to sum to the game's total line. Points O/U lines sit at 4k+2 so a player's score (a multiple of 4) can never push.", "caveats": [ "Honest expectations (no confidence gain) \u2014 the projected score margin is the model's true expected gap, narrower than the deliberately-widened spread on the lines page.", "Expected player points = 4 x expected gets (ignores negs); team score adds bonuses.", "Single-game release: only (Stitch)^2 @ Connor Chang. (Stitch)^2 had a Week-2 bye so their ratings are unchanged since Week 1; Ponnor Week-2 game is folded in. Rosters = full drafted roster; players without a game rating use combine ability.", "Not released as live markets pre-game (per plan)." ] }, "games": [ { "home": "(Stitch)^2", "away": "cryo", "players": { "(Stitch)^2": [ { "player": "Ryan K", "exp_gets": 2.9, "exp_points": 11.7, "ou_points": 10, "top_subjects": [ "Phys", "Math" ] }, { "player": "Praneel A", "exp_gets": 2.7, "exp_points": 10.9, "ou_points": 10, "top_subjects": [ "ESS", "Chem" ] }, { "player": "Arjun D", "exp_gets": 1.5, "exp_points": 6.1, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "Bio", "CS" ] }, { "player": "Henry Lu", "exp_gets": 0.6, "exp_points": 2.4, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "CS", "Chem" ] }, { "player": "Sam E", "exp_gets": 0.5, "exp_points": 2.1, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "CS", "Chem" ] }, { "player": "Alex L", "exp_gets": 0.4, "exp_points": 1.6, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "ESS", "CS" ] } ], "cryo": [ { "player": "Suzuko O", "exp_gets": 4.0, "exp_points": 16.0, "ou_points": 14, "top_subjects": [ "Bio", "ESS" ] }, { "player": "Edward C", "exp_gets": 2.4, "exp_points": 9.7, "ou_points": 10, "top_subjects": [ "CS", "Phys" ] }, { "player": "Shannon I", "exp_gets": 1.2, "exp_points": 4.9, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "Chem", "Math" ] }, { "player": "Ethan Wang", "exp_gets": 0.9, "exp_points": 3.5, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "Chem", "Math" ] }, { "player": "Seonho C", "exp_gets": 0.7, "exp_points": 2.6, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "Math", "ESS" ] }, { "player": "Bryce T", "exp_gets": 0.5, "exp_points": 2.1, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "ESS", "Math" ] } ] }, "team": { "(Stitch)^2": { "proj_tossup": 36, "proj_bonus": 44, "proj_score": 80 }, "cryo": { "proj_tossup": 37, "proj_bonus": 46, "proj_score": 82 } } }, { "home": "dan.k.memes", "away": "mingle/Yunyi", "players": { "dan.k.memes": [ { "player": "Dennis J", "exp_gets": 2.8, "exp_points": 11.1, "ou_points": 10, "top_subjects": [ "CS", "Phys" ] }, { "player": "Varyan J", "exp_gets": 2.7, "exp_points": 10.9, "ou_points": 10, "top_subjects": [ "ESS", "Math" ] }, { "player": "Lishan Prado", "exp_gets": 2.1, "exp_points": 8.4, "ou_points": 10, "top_subjects": [ "Chem", "Math" ] }, { "player": "Matthew Y", "exp_gets": 1.8, "exp_points": 7.2, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "Bio", "Math" ] }, { "player": "Sriman D", "exp_gets": 0.3, "exp_points": 1.2, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "Math", "Phys" ] } ], "mingle/Yunyi": [ { "player": "Theenash S", "exp_gets": 4.1, "exp_points": 16.5, "ou_points": 18, "top_subjects": [ "Bio", "Chem" ] }, { "player": "Roshan A", "exp_gets": 3.9, "exp_points": 15.4, "ou_points": 14, "top_subjects": [ "Math", "Phys" ] }, { "player": "Uddip K", "exp_gets": 0.5, "exp_points": 2.2, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "Bio", "CS" ] } ] }, "team": { "dan.k.memes": { "proj_tossup": 36, "proj_bonus": 45, "proj_score": 81 }, "mingle/Yunyi": { "proj_tossup": 35, "proj_bonus": 43, "proj_score": 78 } } }, { "home": "jonathan", "away": "czz", "players": { "jonathan": [ { "player": "Edwin H", "exp_gets": 4.0, "exp_points": 16.2, "ou_points": 18, "top_subjects": [ "Bio", "Chem" ] }, { "player": "Sid S", "exp_gets": 1.8, "exp_points": 7.2, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "Math", "Phys" ] }, { "player": "Aryan B", "exp_gets": 1.4, "exp_points": 5.6, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "CS", "Bio" ] }, { "player": "Kensuke O", "exp_gets": 1.1, "exp_points": 4.6, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "ESS", "Phys" ] }, { "player": "Dennis S", "exp_gets": 0.6, "exp_points": 2.2, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "Chem", "Math" ] } ], "czz": [ { "player": "Vishnu M", "exp_gets": 6.0, "exp_points": 23.9, "ou_points": 22, "top_subjects": [ "ESS", "Math" ] }, { "player": "pyrrolysine", "exp_gets": 1.3, "exp_points": 5.3, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "Phys", "Bio" ] }, { "player": "Achuth V", "exp_gets": 0.8, "exp_points": 3.4, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "Bio", "Chem" ] }, { "player": "Anish A", "exp_gets": 0.8, "exp_points": 3.3, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "Chem", "Bio" ] }, { "player": "Charles Huang", "exp_gets": 0.5, "exp_points": 2.1, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "Phys", "Chem" ] } ] }, "team": { "jonathan": { "proj_tossup": 36, "proj_bonus": 45, "proj_score": 81 }, "czz": { "proj_tossup": 37, "proj_bonus": 45, "proj_score": 82 } } }, { "home": "ChessFun", "away": "James W", "players": { "ChessFun": [ { "player": "Ishaan K", "exp_gets": 2.9, "exp_points": 11.7, "ou_points": 10, "top_subjects": [ "ESS", "CS" ] }, { "player": "Andrew W", "exp_gets": 1.8, "exp_points": 7.1, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "Phys", "Chem" ] }, { "player": "Shaun I", "exp_gets": 1.8, "exp_points": 7.1, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "Bio", "Phys" ] }, { "player": "Arjun", "exp_gets": 1.6, "exp_points": 6.3, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "Math", "Chem" ] }, { "player": "Rishvanth B", "exp_gets": 0.8, "exp_points": 3.2, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "Phys", "Chem" ] } ], "James W": [ { "player": "Akhil B", "exp_gets": 4.6, "exp_points": 18.4, "ou_points": 18, "top_subjects": [ "ESS", "Chem" ] }, { "player": "Sohil Rathi", "exp_gets": 2.4, "exp_points": 9.6, "ou_points": 10, "top_subjects": [ "Math", "Phys" ] }, { "player": "Jake R", "exp_gets": 1.5, "exp_points": 6.1, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "Bio", "Math" ] }, { "player": "Arman A", "exp_gets": 0.6, "exp_points": 2.5, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "CS", "Bio" ] }, { "player": "Kavin Anreddy", "exp_gets": 0.4, "exp_points": 1.4, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "CS", "Phys" ] } ] }, "team": { "ChessFun": { "proj_tossup": 35, "proj_bonus": 44, "proj_score": 80 }, "James W": { "proj_tossup": 36, "proj_bonus": 45, "proj_score": 82 } } }, { "home": "sumin", "away": "xpoes", "players": { "sumin": [ { "player": "Lucas Q", "exp_gets": 3.1, "exp_points": 12.4, "ou_points": 14, "top_subjects": [ "Phys", "Chem" ] }, { "player": "Angelina Y", "exp_gets": 2.8, "exp_points": 11.1, "ou_points": 10, "top_subjects": [ "Bio", "CS" ] }, { "player": "Kevin 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"Math", "ESS" ] }, { "player": "Justin K", "exp_gets": 3.2, "exp_points": 12.9, "ou_points": 14, "top_subjects": [ "Bio", "Chem" ] }, { "player": "Shubam V", "exp_gets": 1.3, "exp_points": 5.1, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "CS", "Bio" ] } ], "GidTheKid2": [ { "player": "Harry Gao", "exp_gets": 4.5, "exp_points": 17.9, "ou_points": 18, "top_subjects": [ "Phys", "Math" ] }, { "player": "William J", "exp_gets": 2.3, "exp_points": 9.1, "ou_points": 10, "top_subjects": [ "Chem", "Bio" ] }, { "player": "William W", "exp_gets": 1.3, "exp_points": 5.1, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "Chem", "CS" ] }, { "player": "Abhinav A", "exp_gets": 1.2, "exp_points": 4.9, "ou_points": 6, "top_subjects": [ "Bio", "ESS" ] }, { "player": "Monish S", "exp_gets": 0.8, "exp_points": 3.3, "ou_points": 2, "top_subjects": [ "ESS", "CS" ] } ] }, "team": { "Fez_Keyreb": { "proj_tossup": 33, "proj_bonus": 41, "proj_score": 74 }, "GidTheKid2": { "proj_tossup": 36, "proj_bonus": 44, "proj_score": 80 } } } ] }