THE TAPE · WEEK 1 CLOSE · MARK-TO-MARKET

Week 1: Consensus Longs Got Squeezed

The home book went 5–1. The favorites blew up. And a franchise PM was off the desk.

Anyone long the chalk into Week 1 got run over. The home book printed 5–1 with an average P&L spread of $44M per session — these weren't tight tapes, they were dislocations. But mark it to "the better book" and you miss the attribution. Run the P&L breakdown and the same three factors keep driving returns: monetization, desk coverage, and headcount on the desk. Raw execution speed? Didn't move the needle.

📈 Three things the headline P&L hides:
Monetization was the alpha. Winners converted 57% of their sourced opportunities into booked P&L; losers just 44%. The better closer won 4 of 6 sessions — the two exceptions won on sheer deal volume.
Fills were clean. Only ~12% of looks went unfilled (no bid) — low slippage. That rewards deep, multi-desk shops and punishes thin books.
Speed ≠ P&L. The faster, lower-latency book actually lost the sessions we can attribute. First to the tape means nothing if you can't monetize the edge or the other shop simply prints more tickets.

The Sessions

Street line: GidTheKid2 −13
sumin $138M$20M GidTheKid2
Driver: a key-man absence + a desk sweep

GidTheKid2 ran without its top book — Harry G, the No. 1 overall pick, was off the desk — and a short-staffed shop got obliterated. sumin owned the floor: a clean sweep in Equities and Commodities, plus a 3–1 edge in Derivatives, while Gid printed in a single asset class. Reeling and thin, Gid took 5 blow-ups. sumin also closed at a 64% clip. Angelina Y and Advai S ran the book. A historic mark.

winning tickets [Gid v sumin] EQ 0-4 CR 2-2 SYS 1-0 CMD 0-4 RATES 1-1 DERIV 1-3 · capture 40% v 64%
Street line: mingle/Yunyi −11
xpoes $96M$48M mingle/Yunyi
Driver: a monetization failure

Don't blame the sourcing for mingle — they swept Equities, split Commodities and Derivatives, and even ran lower latency. They couldn't close: just 22% capture (4 of 18 looks monetized). Leave that much edge on the table and you're down a session. xpoes stayed diversified — owning Credit and Rates at a 55% close — and pulled away. theenash s booked size in a losing seat.

winning tickets [xpoes v mingle] EQ 0-3 CR 3-1 SYS 2-1 CMD 2-2 RATES 2-0 DERIV 2-2 · capture 55% v 22%
Street line: anurag −13
dan.k.memes $92M$72M anurag
Driver: out-sourced, out-closed

The tightest tape of the day, and a clinic in conversion. anurag actually sourced more — winning Equities, Credit, and Systematic. But dan flipped it at the close: 60% capture to anurag's 36%, while anurag marked down 3 blow-ups. In a low-slippage regime, closing beats sourcing. Sean F led anurag; Lishan P and Dennis J carried dan.

winning tickets [anurag v dan] EQ 3-1 CR 2-2 SYS 2-1 CMD 1-2 RATES 1-2 DERIV 2-2 · capture 36% v 60%
Street line: czz −1 ✓
czz $92M$68M (Stitch)²
Driver: a one-PM book

(Stitch)² owned the cyclicals — a sweep in Equities and a Derivatives edge — but czz had the standout PM on the floor. vishnu m printed $32M on 9 winning tickets across every desk, sweeping Commodities and commanding Rates. Pair that with a 55%-to-40% capture edge and it was over. The lone consensus long to deliver.

winning tickets [stitch v czz] EQ 3-0 CR 1-2 SYS 2-1 CMD 0-4 RATES 1-3 DERIV 3-1 · capture 40% v 55%
Street line: James W −5
cryo $98M$74M James W
Driver: volume over speed

The most counterintuitive attribution of the close: James W ran faster AND closed better (62% to 42%) — and still lost $24M. The driver was ticket volume. cryo simply put on more trades across more desks, sweeping Systematic and Derivatives and winning Credit. James W's edges (Equities, Commodities) were real but too concentrated. The preseason A+, meet variance. Edward paced cryo.

winning tickets [cryo v JamesW] EQ 1-3 CR 3-1 SYS 3-0 CMD 1-3 RATES 1-1 DERIV 3-0 · capture 42% v 62%
Street line: Connor Chang −7
ChessFun $120M$92M Connor Chang
Driver: a high-volume tape neither side could slow

$212M printed combined with almost no unfilled looks — pure flow. Both books closed at 67%, so it came down to volume, and ChessFun ran more — an Equities sweep and the overall ticket edge, led by Eric L and his lowest-latency execution. Kian D printed $28M to keep Connor in range, but never closer.

winning tickets [ChessFun v Connor] EQ 4-0 CR 1-3 SYS 1-1 CMD 2-2 RATES 2-2 DERIV 2-1 · capture 67% v 67%

The Street

The books opened every favorite at −5 to −7 and watched the consensus get torched. Fading the crowded long was the trade of the week: five of six shorts paid. And the Street never repriced ahead of the print — odds barely drifted toward the dogs intraday and only gapped once the P&L was locked. The wildest repricing was sumin, a double-digit underdog that closed at a 98% implied winner. The signal: this tape does not respect preseason marks.

Traders of the Week

🏆 Top PM: vishnu m (czz) — $32M printed on 9 winning tickets across every desk, single-handedly delivering the only consensus-long win of the slate.
PMDeskP&LTicketsBlow-ups
vishnu mczz$32M91
Kian DConnor Chang$28M70
theenash smingle/Yunyi$24M71
Angelina Ysumin$20M50
Sean Fanurag$20M61
Eric LChessFun$20M50

⚡ Lowest latency: Eric L — first to the bid all session. Risk-limit trouble: William Jung and Praneel led the desk with 3 blow-ups each — William's in that short-staffed $118M loss, which tells its own story.

League Table

All 14 books marked to market after Week 1, both desks — top to bottom.

EAST

#BookThe Mark
1xpoesDiversified, no weak desk — the cleanest print in the East.
2sumin$138M is $138M. (Yes, Gid was a PM down — but you book what the tape gives you.)
3dan.k.memesOut-closed a strong anurag book. Quietly 1–0 the disciplined way.
4GidTheKid2Don't mark them down on the blow-up — the No. 1 PM was out. Get Harry G back and this is a top-2 book.
5anuragOut-sourced dan and still lost. Fix the 36% capture and the blow-ups; the talent's there.
6mingle/YunyiSourced fine, closed at 22%. Correctable, but ugly.
7Fez_KeyrebDark this week — no print. We'll mark them next week.

WEST

#BookThe Mark
1ChessFun$120M and a $28M win over a contender. Hottest book on the Street.
2cryoBeat the preseason favorite by $24M on volume, not stars. Real.
3czzvishnu m is a one-PM book — but while he's printing, they're dangerous.
4Connor ChangLost the flow battle, but Kian D is a star PM. A bounce-back setup.
5James WThe preseason A+ is 0–1. Time to print it, not pitch it.
6(Stitch)²Outclassed across the desks. Needs a response.
7jonathanDark this week — total unknown. Opens next week.

The Week Ahead

Week 2 is an all-divisional book. sumin and (Stitch)² go dark, while jonathan and Fez_Keyreb open their year after a Week-1 hold — two names with no marks on them yet. And the question into the open: does the home book hold a second session?

⭐ Trade of the Week
Connor Chang @ czz

The marquee tape, and a star-PM showdown: Kian D ($28M) takes his book into vishnu m's shop ($32M, Top PM). Two of the most loaded desks in the league, two PMs who carried the firm alone. Connor is coming off a blown flow session and wants to prove it was noise; vishnu just showed he can print solo. Whichever bench shows up wins it — the principals will trade size all day.

anurag @ GidTheKid2
watch: the key-man report

Two books off Week-1 stumbles, so one resets. The swing factor is the status of the No. 1 overall pick — if Harry G is back on the desk, GidTheKid2 is a far deeper shop than the short-staffed group sumin marked down. anurag's fix is cleaner: they out-sourced dan.k.memes and still lost, undone by a weak close and risk-limit breaches. Tighten it and they're a threat.

ChessFun @ cryo  ·  dan.k.memes @ xpoes  ·  jonathan @ James W  ·  Fez_Keyreb @ mingle/Yunyi
watch: flow vs. depth, debutants & redemption

ChessFun's high-flow book visits cryo's deep, multi-desk shop — pace against breadth. Two unbeatens collide as dan.k.memes (won on monetization) marks against xpoes (won on diversification). And the redemption tape runs everywhere: preseason A+ James W must answer an upset against debutant jonathan, while mingle/Yunyi — sunk by a 22% close — host the other opener, Fez_Keyreb. Unknown counterparties, motivated books: the exact setup that printed Week 1's chaos.

👀 On the tape:  • Home book — went 5–1; six more try to hold.  • The openers — jonathan & Fez have no marks.  • Capture watch — mingle (22%) and anurag (36%) left a quarter on the table; close better or fade.  • Key-man risk — one PM off the desk swung a session by $100M+ last week.

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