Week 5 detonated the oddsmakers; Week 6 nearly set the field. A wave of home blowouts routed the slate โ home clubs went 5โ1, four games decided by a run-rule margin โ and by the final out six of eight playoff spots were clinched, GidTheKid2 and jonathan were all but buried, and only the two No. 4 seeds stayed live. The books got cooked a second straight week (3-for-6 on direction, all three misses favorites who lost outright), and the losers gave their games back at the plate. We're again grading every club against expected runs (xR): the runs a side should have plated given exactly who filled out the lineup card and how each zone stacked up. The diagnosis is blunt: volume and home cooking decided the slate, and the rally-killing out turned every loss into a rout.
For every club that took the field we simulate the runs it should have plated given the exact lineup that dressed and each side's zone strength, then stack it against what actually crossed the plate. Positive = overperformed; negative = underperformed. Two clubs โ cryo and xpoes โ had an off day and did not take the field; they get no new mark this week.
| Club | Runs (raw hits) | Expected (xR) | ฮ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James W | 15 | 10.6 | +4.4 | The 116โ56 statement, and the xR says every bit was earned โ a Contact 0โ4 AND Eye 0โ4 double-sweep of Stitch. akhil's clean masterclass led it. Clear No. 1 in the West. |
| mingle/Yunyi | 13 | 8.7 | +4.3 | Ran sumin on sheer volume and the fastest first-pitch of the week (15). Best diff in the league. The East's true No. 1 on quality; clinched. |
| czz | 13 | 9.7 | +3.3 | A 60-run rout with Power 3โ0 and Speed 3โ0 sweeps, vishnu m's redemption, just one rally-killer. Clinched; the โ14 season diff is the only blemish. |
| dan.k.memes | 11 | 7.7 | +3.3 | The lone road winner โ beat a home favorite (Gid) with a Contact 3โ0 sweep and ended their season. Clinched the most wins. |
| Fez_Keyreb | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | ZERO rally-killing outs and still lost by a run โ beat its number handily. The buzzer isn't the problem; the finishing (36% RISP) is. |
| Connor Chang | 14 | 11.9 | +2.1 | A 122โ32 demolition, only one rally-killer, Kian D's redemption in the middle of it. Controls the West's last seed โ and the ceiling nobody wants to draw. |
| jonathan | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | Actually came in over xR on hits โ and lost by 90 anyway, because it made TEN rally-killing outs. The outs, not the bats, buried it. Eliminated, West cellar. |
| anurag | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 | Par-plus on a fast (17), efficient 60% RISP night, edged Fez by a run. Alive, but needs help โ live, not in control. |
| (Stitch)ยฒ | 8 | 8.1 | โ0.1 | Right on its number and run by 60 anyway; vs Pen 3โ0 was the only zone they owned. Worst diff in the league. All but out. |
| ChessFun | 7 | 7.9 | โ0.9 | Laid a road โ1.5 and got run-ruled by 60 โ five rally-killers, swept in Power and Speed. The rotation, not the record, is the worry now. |
| sumin | 8 | 9.0 | โ1.0 | Favored and run by mingle at 25% RISP, under its own xR. Essentially in โ but the ceiling's a seed and the floor's a run-rule loss. |
| GidTheKid2 | 8 | 9.9 | โ1.9 | Six rally-killing outs and a Contact 0โ3 sweep against ended their season โ even with Harry Gao back in the order. Eliminated. |
note: raw hit totals shown as the run baseline for the ledger; game line scores below are scaled to a nine-inning ballgame, winner and margin order preserved.
six games on the card this week โ home clubs went 5โ1; only cryo and xpoes had an off day.
The signature game of the week. Connor Chang covered a big road number and ran jonathan by 90 โ a 122โ32 demolition. Connor overperformed at 14 vs 11.9 (+2.1) with just one rally-killing out, pounding Contact and Smallball for three apiece. Kian D authored the redemption โ 8 hits a week after cratering under his line.
jonathan's half is a discipline horror story. They actually came in over xR on hits (8 vs 6.5) โ but they made TEN rally-killing outs, โ40 runs of self-inflicted damage, and it ended their season. Their lone pulse was vs Pen 3โ1. On a slate where volume won games, the outs, not the bats, lost this one.
A 60-run statement built on the buzzer. James W overperformed at 15 vs 10.6 (+4.4), headlined by a Contact 4โ0 AND Eye 4โ0 double-sweep of Stitch. akhil paced it with a week-clean 7 hits and ZERO rally-killing outs, the tidiest high-volume line of the year. The scariest ceiling in the West, on full display.
Stitch landed right on its number (8 vs 8.1, โ0.1) and got run off the field anyway. They made four rally-killing outs and were blanked in two full zones; their lone bright spot was a vs Pen 3โ0 behind pancreas uvula (2 hits). Low volume, swept where it mattered โ all but out.
The books laid ChessFun as a road favorite and watched czz run them by 60. czz overperformed at 13 vs 9.7 (+3.3) on a pair of shutout zones โ a Power 3โ0 and a Speed 3โ0 sweep โ with just one rally-killer. vishnu m led it with a 5-hit, ZERO-out redemption a week after bottoming out.
ChessFun came in a shade under xR (7 vs 7.9, โ0.9) and gave away what it did get, making five rally-killing outs. Their only real pulse was an Eye 3โ1. ishaan k (1 hit) couldn't carry a short order. A run-line favorite run-ruled โ the rotation, not the record, is the worry now.
The purest expression of the week's throughline, and the East's second cooked favorite. mingle/Yunyi put 13 aboard against an xR of 8.7 (+4.3) at a 54% RISP clip and jumped the first pitch faster than anyone on the card (avg 15). theenash s (5 hits) set the tempo. Efficiency didn't decide it โ sheer baserunner volume did.
sumin was the road favorite and got run by 54. They cashed just 25% with runners in scoring position (2/8) and came in 8 vs 9.0 (โ1.0), swept 1โ3 across three zones. Lucas W (2 hits) led a quiet order. The ceiling's a seed; the floor is this.
The lone road winner on the card, and the game that closed a season. dan.k.memes overperformed at 11 vs 7.7 (+3.3) and swept Contact 3โ0 to beat a home favorite by 28. Lishan P (3 hits) carried the deepest bats. A win's a win โ and this one clinched dan the most wins in the East.
Gid was favored at home and lost outright. They actually ran a clean 62% RISP โ but made six rally-killing outs, came in 8 vs 9.9 (โ1.9), and it ended their year. Harry Gao (2 hits) did play โ no late scratch here โ and it still wasn't enough. Talent, no discipline.
The closest game of the week, a one-run grind to the final out. anurag edged it on efficiency and tempo โ a 60% RISP night and a fast trigger (avg first-pitch 17) โ landing right on its number (10 vs 9.5, +0.5). Sanjay Suresh (2 hits) provided just enough, and a covered โ1.5 kept anurag's season alive.
Fez should feel this one. They made ZERO rally-killing outs โ the cleanest order on the card โ and beat their number (11 vs 8.5, +2.5), even winning vs Pen 3โ1 behind Chris W (3 hits). But at just 36% RISP they couldn't finish. The buzzer isn't the problem; the finishing is. A run short, and fading.
All 14 clubs after Week 6, both leagues. Records first, but the takes lean on xR โ who's really as good as their line score. The bracket is nearly set: two clubs had an off day this week, so there's no new mark to grade, but a good record isn't buried for an idle slate.
EAST
| # | Club | The Read |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | mingle/Yunyi | 4โ1, +238 (best in the league). A +4.3, first-pitch-15 rout of sumin. The East's true No. 1 on quality; clinched. |
| 2 | dan.k.memes | 5โ1, clinched the most wins, and beat GidTheKid2 on the road to end their year. The โ6 diff says the wins are narrow, but a win's a win. |
| 3 | sumin | 3โ3, +36, essentially in (99%). Got run by mingle at 25% RISP โ the ceiling is a seed, the floor is a run-rule loss. |
| 4 | xpoes | 2โ3, and now controls the East's last playoff spot after the makeup win (off day this week). The hard-luck club is a win away from the bracket. |
| 5 | anurag | 2โ3, alive but needs help; edged Fez by a run on a fast, efficient night. Live, not in control. |
| 6 | Fez_Keyreb | 1โ4, โ16. Zero rally-killing outs and still lost by a run โ the buzzer isn't the problem, the finishing (36% RISP) is. Fading. |
| 7 | GidTheKid2 | 2โ4, โ194, eliminated. Six rally-killers and a Contact sweep against them ended it โ even with Harry Gao back in the order. |
WEST
| # | Club | The Read |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James W | 4โ1, +226. A 116โ56 statement with a Contact/Eye double-sweep; akhil's clean, high-volume masterclass. The conference's clear No. 1. |
| 2 | cryo | 4โ2, +202. Off day this week and still the co-favorite; the highest ceiling in the West waiting in the bracket. |
| 3 | czz | 4โ2, โ14, clinched. Wins ugly and often โ a 60-run rout of ChessFun, vishnu m's redemption, one rally-killer. The โ14 diff is the only blemish. |
| 4 | Connor Chang | 2โ3, +112, and controls the West's final seed. A 122โ32 demolition (Kian D 8 hits) says the ceiling is a problem for whoever draws them. |
| 5 | ChessFun | 2โ3, โ102. Laid a road โ1.5 and got run-ruled by 60; five rally-killers, needs a lot of help now. The rotation, not the record, is the worry. |
| 6 | (Stitch)ยฒ | 2โ3, โ228 (worst diff in the league). Run by 60; vs Pen 3โ0 was the only zone they owned. All but out. |
| 7 | jonathan | 1โ5, โ196, eliminated. TEN rally-killing outs in a 90-run loss โ the buzzer discipline never came, and the season's over. |
A second straight rough week โ just 3 of 6 on direction, and all three misses were favorites who lost outright: ChessFun โ1.5 (run-ruled by 60), sumin โ1.5 (run-ruled by 54), GidTheKid2 โ1.5 (lost by 28). Every one was on the road or at home against a hot dog; home clubs went 5โ1. The hits were the big road-covering chalk that actually showed up: James W โ1.5 (won by 60), Connor Chang โ1.5 (won by 90), anurag โ1.5 (won by a run). The lesson two weeks running is loud โ the model underprices home cooking and overprices a club's ceiling. Keep fading road favorites laying real wood; availability and the home field are the levers the books still can't price.
| Player | Club | Hits | Rally-killers | First-pitch avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| akhil | James W | 7 | 0 | 18 |
| Kian D | Connor Chang | 8 | 1 | 27 |
| vishnu m | czz | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| theenash s | mingle/Yunyi | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| Lucas W | sumin | 2 | 1 | 27 |
| Lishan P | dan.k.memes | 3 | 0 | 24 |
โก Fastest to the plate: mingle's theenash s jumped the first pitch quicker than any top bat this week (15), with James W's akhil (18) and czz's vishnu m (18) right behind. Rally-killers: jonathan's TEN-out meltdown and GidTheKid2's six headlined the week โ two clubs whose discipline at the plate, not talent, ended their seasons.
Pool play is nearly done โ four games remain and the field is mostly set. Six of eight playoff spots are clinched (East: mingle/Yunyi, dan.k.memes, sumin; West: James W, cryo, czz). The two live races are the No. 4 seeds: xpoes controls the East's last spot (in with a win; anurag and Fez need help), and Connor Chang controls the West's (win their last game and they're in). GidTheKid2 and jonathan are eliminated.
Two win-and-in games decide the last of the bracket. xpoes holds the tiebreaker for the East's final seed after the makeup win; a win locks it, and anurag and Fez need help. Connor Chang holds the West's โ and their 122-run ceiling makes them the seed nobody wants to draw. Win their finale and the demolition club is in the field.