The two conferences finally got their bracket. Home teams went 5โ1, three chalk favorites were run off the floor outright, and by Sunday night six of the eight playoff spots were clinched โ with only the two No. 4 seeds still live. We grade every team against xFGM โ the buckets a side should have made given exactly who dressed and how strong each zone lineup was โ and this week it told the same two-part story: home cooking was underpriced, and the losers detonated at the buzzer. The books took a second straight beating (3-for-6), and all three misses were favorites who lost outright. Meanwhile two of last week's biggest busts โ vishnu m and Kian D โ bounced back hard, and xFGM caught both. The bracket is nearly set; only the two No. 4 seeds remain.
For every team that played we simulate the buckets it should have made given the exact lineup that dressed and each side's zone strength, then compare to what it actually put up. Positive = overperformed (made more buckets than the matchup implied); negative = underperformed. Two teams โ cryo and xpoes โ were on bye this week and carry no new mark.
| Team | Actual FGM | Expected (xFGM) | ฮ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James W | 15 | 10.6 | +4.4 | A 116โ56 statement (scaled 121โ89) with a Mid-range and Corner double-sweep of Stitch; akhil's 36-point, 0-turnover masterclass. The West's clear No. 1. |
| mingle/Yunyi | 13 | 8.7 | +4.3 | A tempo-15 rout of sumin โ the fastest trigger of the week โ at 54% from the line. The East's true No. 1 on quality; clinched. |
| czz | 13 | 9.7 | +3.3 | A 60-point rout of ChessFun (scaled 121โ89), Paint and Transition swept 3โ0, vishnu m's zero-turnover redemption, one giveaway. Clinched. |
| dan.k.memes | 11 | 7.7 | +3.3 | The only road win of the week โ beat GidTheKid2 to end their year on a Mid-range 0โ3 sweep. Clinched the most wins in the East. |
| Fez_Keyreb | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | Made MORE buckets than anurag and turned it over ZERO times โ and still lost by 4. The finishing (36% from the line), not the buzzer, is the problem. |
| Connor Chang | 14 | 11.9 | +2.1 | A 122โ32 demolition (scaled 125โ85), Kian D 9 buckets on his redemption night, only one turnover. The ceiling nobody wants to draw. |
| jonathan | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | Beat its own number on buckets (8 vs 6.5) โ the buckets weren't the problem. TEN turnovers in a 90-point (scaled 40) loss ended the season. Eliminated. |
| anurag | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 | Right on its number; a fast trigger (shot-clock 17) and 60% from the line edged Fez by 4. Alive, but needs help. |
| (Stitch)ยฒ | 8 | 8.1 | โ0.1 | Run by 60; a Deep 3โ0 was the only zone they owned. A โ228 differential, worst in the league โ all but out. |
| ChessFun | 7 | 7.9 | โ0.9 | Laid โ2.7 and lost by 60; five turnovers, Paint and Transition swept against them. Needs a lot of help now. |
| sumin | 8 | 9.0 | โ1.0 | Run by mingle at 25% from the line; the ceiling is a seed, the floor a 54-point (scaled 30) loss. Essentially in at 99%. |
| GidTheKid2 | 8 | 9.9 | โ1.9 | Six turnovers and a Mid-range sweep against them ended it โ even with Harry Gao back in the lineup. Eliminated. |
The statement of the week. James W overperformed at 15 buckets vs 10.6 (+4.4) and won it in two rooms โ a Mid-range 4โ0 and Corner 4โ0 double-whitewash that (Stitch)ยฒ never got a look in. akhil ran the show with 9 buckets (36 points) and ZERO turnovers, the cleanest high-volume line of the season. This is the West's clear No. 1, stated in three digits.
(Stitch)ยฒ landed right on its number (8 vs 8.1, โ0.1) with one bright spot and one only โ a Deep 3โ0 sweep, pancreas uvula (4 buckets) the lone pulse. Four turnovers to James W's one on a night it got whitewashed in two zones; a โ228 differential, the worst in the league, and all but out of the bracket.
The game that stamped mingle/Yunyi the East's true No. 1. They out-bought everyone โ 13 buckets vs 8.7 (+4.3) โ at the fastest trigger of the week (avg shot-clock 15) and a 54% night from the line. theenash s (6 buckets, 20 points) set the pace in a 30-point rout that beat its number by every measure.
sumin was favored (โ1.5) and got run. It managed just 25% from the line (2/8) on 8 buckets vs 9.0 (โ1.0), Lucas W (6 buckets, 20 points) the only steady hand. The ceiling is still a seed โ sumin is essentially in at 99% โ but the floor, on a night like this, is a 30-point loss at a quarter from the stripe.
The road win of the week โ the only one. dan.k.memes overperformed at 11 buckets vs 7.7 (+3.3) and swept Gid in the Mid-range 3โ0, Lishan P (4 buckets, 16 points) leading a balanced night with just two turnovers. It's a 5โ1 record and the most wins in the East, clinched โ the โ6 differential says the wins are narrow, but a win's a win.
GidTheKid2 was favored (โ0.9) at home and lost by 22 โ and it ended their year. They came in under their number (8 vs 9.9, โ1.9), turned it over SIX times, and even a healthy lineup (Harry Gao played โ no DNP here) couldn't cover the Mid-range sweep. Eliminated at 2โ4, โ194.
czz wins ugly and often, and this was the ugly-for-the-other-guy side of a 32-point rout. They overperformed at 13 buckets vs 9.7 (+3.3), sweeping ChessFun in the Paint 3โ0 and Transition 3โ0, and did it on the back of vishnu m's redemption โ 6 buckets, 24 points, ZERO turnovers a week after cratering under his line. One giveaway all night. Clinched; the โ14 differential is the only blemish on a 4โ2.
ChessFun laid โ2.7 and lost by 32. Five turnovers, a 43% night from the line (3/7), and swept in two zones โ ishaan k (3 buckets) the top line. At 2โ3, โ102, the rotation, not the record, is the worry; they need a lot of help now.
The demolition of the week, and the ceiling nobody wants to draw. Connor Chang overperformed at 14 buckets vs 11.9 (+2.1) with only ONE turnover, and Kian D authored the redemption of the week โ 9 buckets, 32 points a week after cratering under his line. A 40-point win that says the 125-point ceiling is a problem for whoever draws them; Connor controls the West's final seed.
jonathan actually beat its own number on buckets (8 vs 6.5, +1.5) โ the buckets were never the problem. It turned the ball over TEN times (โ40 points of self-inflicted damage), the entire story of a 40-point loss. potential man (4 buckets) led a side whose buzzer discipline never came. Eliminated at 1โ5.
The closest game of the week, and the one that keeps anurag alive. anurag landed right on its number (10 vs 9.5, +0.5) and won it at the stripe โ a 60% night from the line (6/10) and a fast trigger (avg shot-clock 17) โ edging a Fez side by 4. Sanjay Suresh (3 buckets) chipped in on a balanced night. Live, but not in control.
Fez_Keyreb is the cruelest story of the week: it made MORE buckets (11 vs 8.5, +2.5), turned it over ZERO times โ the cleanest card on the floor โ and still lost. The buzzer isn't the problem; the finishing is. A 36% night from the line (4/11) was the whole 4-point margin. Chris W (4 buckets) led. At 1โ4, โ16, fading.
All 14 teams after Week 6, both conferences. Records first, but the takes lean on xFGM โ who's really as good as their result. Two teams (cryo, xpoes) were on bye this week; they hold their spots on merit, no new mark. Playoff status is in from the sim.
EAST
| # | Team | The Take |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | mingle/Yunyi | 4โ1, +238 diff (best in the league). A +4.3-xFGM, tempo-15 rout of sumin. The East's true No. 1 on quality; clinched. |
| 2 | dan.k.memes | 5โ1, clinched the most wins, and beat GidTheKid2 on the road to end their year. The โ6 diff says the wins are narrow, but a win's a win. |
| 3 | sumin | 3โ3, +36, essentially in (99%). Got run by mingle at 25% from the line โ the ceiling is a seed, the floor is a 30-point loss. |
| 4 | xpoes | 2โ3, on bye, and now controls the East's last playoff spot after the makeup win. The hard-luck team is a win away from the bracket. |
| 5 | anurag | 2โ3, alive but needs help; edged Fez by 4 on a fast, efficient night. Live, not in control. |
| 6 | Fez_Keyreb | 1โ4, โ16. Zero turnovers and still lost by 4 โ the buzzer isn't the problem, the finishing (36% from the line) is. Fading. |
| 7 | GidTheKid2 | 2โ4, โ194, eliminated. Six turnovers and a Mid-range sweep against them ended it โ even with Harry Gao back in the lineup. |
WEST
| # | Team | The Take |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James W | 4โ1, +226. A 116โ56 statement with a Mid-range/Corner double-sweep; akhil's 36-point, 0-turnover masterclass. The conference's clear No. 1. |
| 2 | cryo | 4โ2, +202. Idle this week and still the co-favorite; the highest ceiling in the West, waiting in the bracket. |
| 3 | czz | 4โ2, โ14, clinched. Wins ugly and often โ a 60-point rout of ChessFun, vishnu m's redemption, one turnover. The โ14 diff is the only blemish. |
| 4 | Connor Chang | 2โ3, +112, and controls the West's final seed. A 122โ32 demolition (Kian D 9 buckets) says the ceiling is a problem for whoever draws them. |
| 5 | ChessFun | 2โ3, โ102. Laid โ2.7 and lost by 60; five turnovers, needs a lot of help now. The rotation, not the record, is the worry. |
| 6 | (Stitch)ยฒ | 2โ3, โ228 (worst diff in the league). Run by 60; a Deep 3โ0 was the only zone they owned. All but out. |
| 7 | jonathan | 1โ5, โ196, eliminated. TEN turnovers in a 90-point loss โ the buzzer discipline never came, and the season's over. |
A second straight rough week: the model went 3-for-6 straight up, and all three misses were favorites who lost outright โ ChessFun โ2.7 (lost by 32), sumin โ1.5 (lost by 30), and GidTheKid2 โ0.9 (lost by 22). All were on the road or at home against a hot dog; home teams went 5โ1. The hits were the big road-covering chalk that actually showed up: James W โ4.5 (won by 32), Connor Chang โ3.9 (won by 40), and anurag โ0.3 (won by 4). The lesson two weeks running is the same lever: the model underprices home court and overprices a team's ceiling โ fade road favorites laying real wood.
| Player | Team | Pts | FGM | TO | Avg shot-clock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| akhil | James W | 36 | 9 | 0 | 18 |
| Kian D | Connor Chang | 32 | 9 | 1 | 27 |
| vishnu m | czz | 24 | 6 | 0 | 18 |
| theenash s | mingle/Yunyi | 20 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| Lucas W | sumin | 20 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| Lishan P | dan.k.memes | 16 | 4 | 0 | 24 |
โก Quickest trigger: mingle's theenash s (avg shot-clock 15) set the fastest pace of the week in the game that made mingle/Yunyi the East's No. 1. Turnover trouble: jonathan's ten giveaways in a 40-point loss and GidTheKid2's six in a season-ending defeat headlined the week โ two teams whose buzzer discipline, not talent, ended their year.
Pool play is nearly done โ four games remain and the bracket is mostly set. Six of the eight playoff spots are clinched (East: mingle/Yunyi, dan.k.memes, sumin; West: James W, cryo, czz). The two live races are both No. 4 seeds โ and both teams control their own fate. GidTheKid2 and jonathan are eliminated.
Two makeup-shaped races decide the last two seeds. xpoes (2โ3) controls the East's final spot after the makeup win โ in with a win, with anurag and Fez_Keyreb needing help. Connor Chang (2โ3) controls the West's โ win their last game and the 125-point ceiling is in the bracket. Both are win-and-in; both hold the key to their own season.
The East's mingle/Yunyi (+238) and the West's James W (+226) are the two juggernauts, each smashing its xFGM in the same week (+4.3, +4.4). The question the bracket asks: does that pool-play form survive a single-elimination floor? Both look like the team to beat in their conference โ and both would be the No. 1 seed nobody wants to meet early.