Week 3 cracked the contenders; Week 4 detonated them. Half the slate was a run-rule laugher, three winners cleared a crooked number, and the biggest name in the East โ dan.k.memes, 3โ0 and alone atop the league โ went down 13โ1. We're again grading every club against expected runs (xR): the runs a side should have plated given exactly who filled the lineup card and how strong each zone stacked up. It turns a week of routs into a diagnosis โ who actually earned the beatdown, and who simply detonated below their own floor. The two levers that keep running this league did it again: who showed up and who kept the bat under control at the plate.
For every club we simulate the runs it should have plated given the exact lineup that dressed and each side's zone strength, then stack it against what actually crossed the plate. Positive = overperformed (scored more than the matchup implied); negative = underperformed. On a blowout week it's the cleanest way to separate the earned from the given.
| Club | Runs (raw gets) | Expected (xR) | ฮ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mingle/Yunyi | 15 | 8.5 | +6.5 | Back from an off day and utterly unhittable โ swept Speed 4โ0 and buried a former unbeaten by 12. Fully real. |
| Fez_Keyreb | 13 | 7.9 | +5.1 | The RISP stroke finally had volume behind it: 13 baserunners and a 77% night. First win, and it was a demolition. |
| James W | 13 | 9.0 | +4.0 | The preseason A+ arrived โ Contact 4โ0, Speed 3โ0, a six-run statement. Class showing. |
| (Stitch)ยฒ | 12 | 8.8 | +3.2 | From โ14 to a win in seven days. A Contact 4โ0 dragged the whole night despite six rally-killers. Real bounce-back. |
| sumin | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | Beat a two-bat xpoes by exactly what a full lineup should. Power + vs-Pen sweeps; back in the win column. |
| jonathan | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | Cleared its number even in a loss (Speed 3โ1). Three rally-killers and a cold Smallball zone were the difference. |
| xpoes | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | Two bats. TWO. And still beat expectation. Rohan G's 7 hits are the story of the week. |
| czz | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | Par-plus in a balanced win โ no zone blowout, just a deeper order. Now 3โ1 and co-leads the West. |
| cryo | 9 | 9.3 | โ0.3 | Right on its number and still lost by 1 โ a Smallball 4โ0 wasted by an 0-for in Contact and Eye. Efficiency cost it. |
| ChessFun | 8 | 9.1 | โ1.1 | Eric L back but quiet (2 hits); a 25% RISP night sank it. Below par against a rising James W. |
| GidTheKid2 | 7 | 9.7 | โ2.7 | Full-strength โ Harry G played โ and still cratered. Six rally-killers and a vs-Pen no-show against a hot Fez. |
| dan.k.memes | 5 | 9.3 | โ4.3 | The 1-run game. Blanked in three zones, 1/5 RISP, seven rally-killers. Worst coverage line of the year. |
note: raw gets shown as the run baseline for the ledger; game line scores below are scaled to a nine-inning ballgame, winner and margin order preserved.
The result of the season. mingle/Yunyi, fresh off an off day, was unhittable โ 15 baserunners against an xR of 8.5 (+6.5), the biggest overperformance of the year, headlined by a Speed 4โ0 and clean sweeps in Power, Contact and Eye. roshan (3 hits, multi-RBI) and theenash s (2) ran a balanced rout.
But 13โ1 is a two-sided story, and dan.k.memes' half is historic in the wrong way. A club that came in 3โ0 was blanked in Power, Contact AND Speed, managed 5 runs on a 9.3-run lineup (โ4.3), cashed 1 of 5 with runners in scoring position and killed seven rallies. Whatever this was โ availability, a bad night, both โ it wasn't the club that led the East a week ago. The coverage model calls it the single worst performance it has logged.
Fez_Keyreb's breakout, and the xR says the ten-run margin was earned twice over. Fez put 13 aboard against a 7.9 expectation (+5.1), swept the Power zone 3โ0, and โ after weeks of good conversion on thin volume โ finally paired it with a 77% RISP night (10/13). Advik S (2 hits, multi-RBI) and Chris W (2) led a deep, disciplined attack.
The alarming half is Gid. This was not an availability excuse โ Harry G played (a team-high 2 hits) โ and they still cratered to 7 vs 9.7 (โ2.7) with six rally-killing outs and a vs-Pen zone that went 1-for against a 1.9 expectation. A full-strength preseason contender getting run by ten is the most concerning single result of the season for a club that isn't short-handed. The talent is there; the discipline at the plate is not.
The preseason favorite looked the part at last. James W overperformed at 13 vs 9.0 (+4.0), powered by a Contact 4โ0 and a Speed 3โ0 that together were the whole game. akhil (3 hits, multi-RBI) paced it, with Sohil (2) and a first-pitch-jumping Kavin Anreddy (12) behind him. That's a six-run statement and a jump to 2โ1.
ChessFun's availability watch got its answer โ Eric L is back โ but the ceiling didn't come with him: he managed just 2 hits, the club came in below par (8 vs 9.1, โ1.1), and a 25% RISP night (2/8) left no margin. They were blanked in Contact (0 vs 1.8) and Speed (0 vs 1.0), the exact zones James W swept. Getting the star back isn't the same as getting the whole order back.
Seven days after a โ14, (Stitch)ยฒ won a nail-biter โ and the xR says the bounce-back was real: 12 aboard against an 8.8 expectation (+3.2), built on a Contact 4โ0 and a Power 3โ1. Praneel A was the engine (3 hits, multi-RBI), though the old wart lingered โ six rally-killing outs nearly gave it all back and kept a comfortable win to one run.
cryo will rue this one: it landed right on its number (9 vs 9.3, โ0.3) and swept Smallball 4โ0, but got blanked in both Contact and Eye (0-for against ~1.6 each) โ the zones Stitch owned. Edward was magnificent (a week-high 4 hits), but no second bat emerged and a 44% RISP night couldn't cover four rally-killers. The hottest club in the West stubbed its toe on a team it should have beaten.
The availability story of the season, told in numbers. xpoes dressed just two rostered bats โ Rohan G and Daniel Y โ and yet the xR, which already bakes in the short bench, says they beat their number (8 vs 7.7, +0.3). Rohan G was heroic: 7 hits, multiple RBI, plus Smallball (3โ0) and Eye (2โ1) sweeps, carrying a lineup that had no business staying within three.
sumin did exactly what a whole order should against a skeleton crew: 11 vs 9.5 (+1.5), with Power and vs-Pen 3-hit sweeps and a steady 55% RISP night. Lucas (7 hits, multi-RBI) matched Rohan blow-for-blow on the other side. There's no shame in this loss for xpoes โ the shame is a roster this good keeps taking the field half-empty. Whole, they're a playoff club; short, they're 1โ3.
czz keeps winning the quiet way. No zone blowout, no single hero โ just a par-plus 10 vs 9.8 (+0.2) and a deeper order: vishnu m (2 hits), anish a (2) and Charles (1) all chipped in, and a 60% RISP night stretched the margin to two. That's a 3โ1 record and a share of the West lead built on breadth.
jonathan actually cleared its number (9 vs 8.0, +1.0) and out-hit czz in the Speed zone (3โ1), so this wasn't a no-show โ it was the back of the order. Three rally-killers and a cold Smallball zone (0-for) were the whole difference, and edwin h (2 hits) had no consistent partner. The giant-killer has real coverage every week; it just keeps leaving runners on at the margins.
All 14 clubs after Week 4, both leagues. Records first, but the takes lean on xR โ who's really as good as their line score.
EAST
| # | Club | The Read |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | mingle/Yunyi | 2โ1 and back with a vengeance โ a +6.5, 12-run demolition. Best single performance of the year and the East's new class. |
| 2 | sumin | 2โ1, +run diff. Did exactly what a full order should to a short one. Power/vs-Pen sweeps; the most complete East club right now. |
| 3 | dan.k.memes | 3โ1 on paper but the ugly run diff and a 1-run implosion (โ4.3) scream regression. The record is the outlier, not the blowout. |
| 4 | anurag | On an off day, 1โ2 but trending up after ending sumin's streak. A quiet week to hold serve; the schedule eases. |
| 5 | Fez_Keyreb | 1โ2, but the +5.1 breakout says the arrow points up hard. Pair that RISP stroke with volume and it's a problem. |
| 6 | GidTheKid2 | 2โ2, and now the worry is real โ full-strength and run by ten (โ2.7, six rally-killers). Talent without discipline. |
| 7 | xpoes | 1โ3, the league's hard-luck case โ beats its number every week while chronically short. Rohan G is carrying a ghost lineup. |
WEST
| # | Club | The Read |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | czz | 3โ1 and co-leads the West on depth, not stars. Zero rally-killers, balanced order, +0.2. Wins ugly and often. |
| 2 | James W | 2โ1 and finally the A+ on the field โ Contact/Speed sweeps, +4.0, a six-run statement. The scariest ceiling in the league. |
| 3 | cryo | 2โ2. Landed on its number and lost by 1 to a bounce-back Stitch โ an efficiency loss, not a talent one. Still dangerous. |
| 4 | Connor Chang | On an off day, 1โ2 but Kian D's ceiling and a big run diff make it a lie of a record. Sleeping giant of the West. |
| 5 | ChessFun | 2โ2. Got Eric L back and still came in below par (โ1.1) on a 25% RISP night. The order, not the star, is the issue. |
| 6 | jonathan | 1โ2, but cleared its number again in a loss (+1.0). Fix the rally-killers and cold Smallball and the spoiler is a seed. |
| 7 | (Stitch)ยฒ | 1โ2 and off the mat โ a +3.2, Contact-4โ0 win a week after the โ14. Six rally-killers still cap the ceiling, but the pulse is back. |
The chalk actually held this week โ five of six favorites covered, and the two clubs laying the biggest run lines (sumin, mingle) cashed emphatically. The lone miss was a real one: cryo at (Stitch)ยฒ, where a โ14 club a week ago flipped the board. The coverage ledger backs the blowouts โ the winners of the three routs (mingle +6.5, Fez +5.1, James W +4.0) all smashed their run expectancy, while the beaten (dan.k โ4.3, Gid โ2.7) cratered below their own floor. The one line worth fading next week is dan.k.memes: a 3โ1 record propped up by an ugly run differential is exactly the kind of reputation the books price too high.
| Player | Club | Hits | Rally-killers | First-pitch avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward | cryo | 4 | 1 | 27 |
| Rohan G | xpoes | 4 | 1 | 27 |
| Lucas | sumin | 4 | 0 | 32 |
| roshan | mingle/Yunyi | 3 | 2 | 27 |
| akhil | James W | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| Advik S | Fez_Keyreb | 3 | 2 | 30 |
โก Most aggressive: James W's Kavin Anreddy and Gid's Abhinav A (both jump first pitches at 12) beat everyone to the plate. Rally-killers: dan.k.memes's seven-out meltdown headlined the week; (Stitch)ยฒ and GidTheKid2 gave back six apiece โ three clubs whose discipline, not talent, decided their night.
Six games, and the marquee is loaded: the West's two leaders collide, the East's hottest club hosts a full-strength Gid looking to prove Week 4 was a fluke, and xpoes finally gets a chance to field a lineup. dan.k.memes and ChessFun are on off days.
The West's two best, and a share of first on the line. czz (3โ1) wins on depth, zero rally-killers and a deep order; James W (2โ1) just unleashed the preseason A+ โ Contact/Speed sweeps, +4.0 โ in a six-run statement. czz's breadth against James W's freshly-clicked ceiling; the winner is the clear class of the league at the midpoint.
The worst possible landing spot for a reeling favorite. mingle/Yunyi just posted the year's best coverage line (+6.5) in a 12-run rout; Gid was run by ten while full-strength (โ2.7, six rally-killers). If Gid can't clean up its at-bats here, the 2โ2 start becomes a genuine crisis โ and mingle stakes an early claim to the East's No. 1 seed.
Two East swing games. Fez brings a +5.1 breakout into a sumin side that just carved up a short lineup โ a real test of whether Fez's RISP-plus-volume version is here to stay. And xpoes hosts anurag with the season's biggest question mark attached: get a real order around Rohan G and this is a winnable game; show up two-deep again and it won't matter.