Week 3 cracked the contenders; Week 4 detonated them. Half the slate was decided by 40 or more, three winners cleared 100, and the biggest name in the East โ dan.k.memes, 3โ0 and alone atop the conference โ put up a 2-spot. We're again grading every team against xGets: the tossups a side should have won given exactly who dressed and how strong each subject lineup was. It turns a week of routs into a diagnosis โ who actually earned the beatdown, and who simply detonated below their own floor. The two levers that keep running this league did it again: who showed up and who kept the buzzer under control.
For every team we simulate the tossups it should have won given the exact lineup that dressed and each side's subject strength, then compare to what it actually got. Positive = overperformed (won more buzzes than the matchup implied); negative = underperformed. On a blowout week it's the cleanest way to separate the earned from the given.
| Team | Actual gets | Expected (xGets) | ฮ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mingle/Yunyi | 15 | 8.5 | +6.5 | Back from bye and utterly unplayable โ swept CS 4โ0 and buried a former unbeaten by 142. Fully real. |
| Fez_Keyreb | 13 | 7.9 | +5.1 | The bonus stroke finally had volume behind it: 13 buzzes and a 77% night. First win, and it was a demolition. |
| James W | 13 | 9.0 | +4.0 | The preseason A+ arrived โ Chem 4โ0, CS 3โ0, a 66-point statement. Class showing. |
| (Stitch)ยฒ | 12 | 8.8 | +3.2 | From โ14 to a win in seven days. Chem 4โ0 dragged the whole night despite six negs. Real bounce-back. |
| sumin | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | Beat a two-man xpoes by exactly what a full roster should. Bio + Phys sweeps; back in the win column. |
| jonathan | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | Cleared its number even in a loss (CS 3โ1). Three negs and a cold Math zone were the difference. |
| xpoes | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | Two players. TWO. And still beat expectation. Rohan G's 7 gets are the story of the week. |
| czz | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | Par-plus in a balanced win โ no zone blowout, just a deeper rotation. Now 3โ1 and co-leads the West. |
| cryo | 9 | 9.3 | โ0.3 | Right on its number and still lost by 4 โ a Math 4โ0 wasted by an 0-for in Chem and ESS. Efficiency cost it. |
| ChessFun | 8 | 9.1 | โ1.1 | Eric L back but quiet (2 gets); a 25% bonus night sank it. Below par against a rising James W. |
| GidTheKid2 | 7 | 9.7 | โ2.7 | Full-strength โ Harry G played โ and still cratered. Six negs and a Physics no-show against a hot Fez. |
| dan.k.memes | 5 | 9.3 | โ4.3 | The 2-point game. Blanked in three subjects, 1/5 bonus, seven negs. Worst coverage line of the year. |
The result of the season. mingle/Yunyi, fresh off a bye, was unplayable โ 15 buzzes against an xGets of 8.5 (+6.5), the biggest overperformance of the year, headlined by a Computer Science 4โ0 and clean sweeps in Bio, Chem and Earth/Space. roshan (6 gets) and theenash s (3) ran a balanced rout.
But 144โ2 is a two-sided story, and dan.k.memes' half is historic in the wrong way. A team that came in 3โ0 was blanked in Bio, Chem AND CS, managed 5 gets on a 9.3-buzz lineup (โ4.3), cashed 1 of 5 bonuses and negged seven times. Whatever this was โ availability, a bad night, both โ it wasn't the team that led the East a week ago. The coverage model calls it the single worst performance it has logged.
Fez_Keyreb's breakout, and the xGets says the 106-point margin was earned twice over. Fez bought 13 tossups against a 7.9 expectation (+5.1), swept Biology 3โ0, and โ after weeks of good conversion on thin volume โ finally paired it with a 77% bonus night (10/13). Advik S (5 gets) and Chris W (3) led a deep, disciplined attack.
The alarming half is Gid. This was not an availability excuse โ Harry G played (a team-high 4 gets) โ and they still cratered to 7 vs 9.7 (โ2.7) with six negs and a Physics zone that went 1-for against a 1.9 expectation. A full-strength preseason contender getting run by 106 is the most concerning single result of the season for a team that isn't short-handed. The talent is there; the buzzer discipline is not.
The preseason favorite looked the part at last. James W overperformed at 13 vs 9.0 (+4.0), powered by a Chemistry 4โ0 and a Computer Science 3โ0 that together were the whole game. akhil (6 gets) paced it, with Sohil (3) and a lightning-fast Kavin Anreddy (word 12) behind him. That's a 66-point statement and a jump to 2โ1.
ChessFun's availability watch got its answer โ Eric L is back โ but the ceiling didn't come with him: he managed just 2 gets, the team came in below par (8 vs 9.1, โ1.1), and a 25% bonus night (2/8) left no margin. They were blanked in Chem (0 vs 1.8) and CS (0 vs 1.0), the exact zones James W swept. Getting the star back isn't the same as getting the whole rotation back.
Seven days after a โ14, (Stitch)ยฒ won a nail-biter โ and the xGets says the bounce-back was real: 12 buzzes against an 8.8 expectation (+3.2), built on a Chemistry 4โ0 and a Biology 3โ1. Praneel A was the engine (6 gets), though the old wart lingered โ six negs nearly gave it all back and kept a comfortable win to four points.
cryo will rue this one: it landed right on its number (9 vs 9.3, โ0.3) and swept Math 4โ0, but got blanked in both Chemistry and Earth/Space (0-for against ~1.6 each) โ the zones Stitch owned. Edward was magnificent (a week-high 8 gets), but no second scorer emerged and a 44% bonus night couldn't cover four negs. The hottest team in the West stubbed its toe on a team it should have beaten.
The availability story of the season, told in numbers. xpoes dressed just two rostered players โ Rohan G and Daniel Y โ and yet the xGets, which already bakes in the short bench, says they beat their number (8 vs 7.7, +0.3). Rohan G was heroic: 7 gets for 28 points, plus Math (3โ0) and ESS (2โ1) sweeps, carrying a lineup that had no business staying within 40.
sumin did exactly what a whole roster should against a skeleton crew: 11 vs 9.5 (+1.5), with Biology and Physics 3-get sweeps and a steady 55% bonus night. Lucas (7 gets, 28 pts) matched Rohan blow-for-blow on the other side. There's no shame in this loss for xpoes โ the shame is a roster this good keeps taking the floor half-empty. Whole, they're a playoff team; short, they're 1โ3.
czz keeps winning the quiet way. No zone blowout, no single hero โ just a par-plus 10 vs 9.8 (+0.2) and a deeper rotation: vishnu m (4 gets), anish a (3) and Charles (2) all chipped in, and a 60% bonus night stretched the margin to 26. That's a 3โ1 record and a share of the West lead built on breadth.
jonathan actually cleared its number (9 vs 8.0, +1.0) and out-gunned czz in CS (3โ1), so this wasn't a no-show โ it was the back end. Three negs and a cold Math zone (0-for) were the whole difference, and edwin h (4 gets) had no consistent partner. The giant-killer has real coverage every week; it just keeps leaking points at the margins.
All 14 teams after Week 4, both conferences. Records first, but the takes lean on xGets โ who's really as good as their result.
EAST
| # | Team | The Take |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | mingle/Yunyi | 2โ1 and back with a vengeance โ a +6.5, 142-point demolition. Best single performance of the year and the East's new class. |
| 2 | sumin | 2โ1, +128 diff. Did exactly what a full roster should to a short one. Bio/Phys sweeps; the most complete East team right now. |
| 3 | dan.k.memes | 3โ1 on paper but the โ74 diff and a 2-point implosion (โ4.3) scream regression. The record is the outlier, not the blowout. |
| 4 | anurag | On bye, 1โ2 but trending up after ending sumin's streak. A quiet week to hold serve; the schedule eases. |
| 5 | Fez_Keyreb | 1โ2, but the +5.1 breakout says the arrow points up hard. Pair that bonus stroke with volume and it's a problem. |
| 6 | GidTheKid2 | 2โ2, and now the worry is real โ full-strength and run by 106 (โ2.7, six negs). Talent without discipline. |
| 7 | xpoes | 1โ3, the league's hard-luck case โ beats its number every week while chronically short. Rohan G is carrying a ghost roster. |
WEST
| # | Team | The Take |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | czz | 3โ1 and co-leads the West on depth, not stars. Zero negs, balanced rotation, +0.2. Wins ugly and often. |
| 2 | James W | 2โ1 and finally the A+ on the floor โ Chem/CS sweeps, +4.0, a 66-point statement. The scariest ceiling in the conference. |
| 3 | cryo | 2โ2. Landed on its number and lost by 4 to a bounce-back Stitch โ an efficiency loss, not a talent one. Still dangerous. |
| 4 | Connor Chang | On bye, 1โ2 but Kian D's ceiling and a +130 diff make it a lie of a record. Sleeping giant of the West. |
| 5 | ChessFun | 2โ2. Got Eric L back and still came in below par (โ1.1) on a 25% bonus night. The rotation, not the star, is the issue. |
| 6 | jonathan | 1โ2, but cleared its number again in a loss (+1.0). Fix the negs and cold Math and the spoiler is a seed. |
| 7 | (Stitch)ยฒ | 1โ2 and off the mat โ a +3.2, Chem-4โ0 win a week after the โ14. Six negs still cap the ceiling, but the pulse is back. |
The chalk actually held this week โ five of six favorites covered, and the two double-digit lines (sumin โ13, mingle โ9) cashed emphatically. The lone miss was a real one: cryo โ5 at (Stitch)ยฒ, where a โ14 team a week ago flipped the board. The coverage ledger backs the blowouts โ the winners of the three routs (mingle +6.5, Fez +5.1, James W +4.0) all smashed their number, while the beaten (dan.k โ4.3, Gid โ2.7) cratered below their own floor. The one line worth fading next week is dan.k.memes: a 3โ1 record propped up by an ugly point differential is exactly the kind of reputation the model prices too high.
| Player | Team | Pts | Gets | Negs | Avg buzz word |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward | cryo | 32 | 8 | 1 | 27 |
| Rohan G | xpoes | 28 | 7 | 1 | 27 |
| Lucas | sumin | 28 | 7 | 0 | 32 |
| roshan | mingle/Yunyi | 24 | 6 | 2 | 27 |
| akhil | James W | 24 | 6 | 1 | 29 |
| Advik S | Fez_Keyreb | 20 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
โก Fastest trigger: James W's Kavin Anreddy and Gid's Abhinav A (both word 12) beat everyone to the buzzer. Itchiest: dan.k.memes's seven-neg meltdown headlined the week; (Stitch)ยฒ and GidTheKid2 gave back six apiece โ three teams whose discipline, not talent, decided their night.
Six games, and the marquee is loaded: the West's two leaders collide, the East's hottest team hosts a full-strength Gid looking to prove Week 4 was a fluke, and xpoes finally gets a chance to field a roster. dan.k.memes and ChessFun are on byes.
The West's two best, and a share of first on the line. czz (3โ1) wins on depth, zero negs and a deep rotation; James W (2โ1) just unleashed the preseason A+ โ Chem/CS sweeps, +4.0 โ in a 66-point statement. czz's breadth against James W's freshly-clicked ceiling; the winner is the clear class of the conference at the midpoint.
The worst possible landing spot for a reeling favorite. mingle/Yunyi just posted the year's best coverage line (+6.5) in a 142-point rout; Gid was run by 106 while full-strength (โ2.7, six negs). If Gid can't clean up the buzzer here, the 2โ2 start becomes a genuine crisis โ and mingle stakes an early claim to the East's No. 1 seed.
Two East swing games. Fez brings a +5.1 breakout into a sumin side that just carved up a short roster โ a real test of whether Fez's bonus-plus-volume version is here to stay. And xpoes hosts anurag with the season's biggest question mark attached: get a real roster around Rohan G and this is a winnable game; show up two-deep again and it won't matter.