Week 4 detonated the contenders; Week 5 detonated the oddsmakers. The books posted their ugliest slate of the season โ two run-line favorites got run-ruled (Connor Chang laid โ1.5 and lost by a dozen; anurag laid โ1.5 and lost by three), the week's losers gave their games back with rally-killing outs at the plate, and the two divisions finally grew a top: mingle/Yunyi and cryo both pulled clear as the new No. 1 seeds. We're again grading every club against expected runs (xR): the runs a side should have plated given exactly who filled out the lineup card and how each zone stacked up. It turns a wild week into a diagnosis โ and the diagnosis is blunt: volume of baserunners, not RISP efficiency, decided every single game, and who dressed a full order priced the season's worst line.
For every club that took the field we simulate the runs it should have plated given the exact lineup that dressed and each side's zone strength, then stack it against what actually crossed the plate. Positive = overperformed; negative = underperformed. Two clubs โ dan.k.memes and ChessFun โ had an off day and did not take the field; they get no new mark this week.
| Club | Runs (raw hits) | Expected (xR) | ฮ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cryo | 15 | 8.5 | +6.5 | The 108-run demolition, and the xR says every bit was earned. Swept vs Pen 3โ0 and Contact 2โ0. Clear No. 1 in the West now. |
| mingle/Yunyi | 13 | 8.0 | +5.0 | Won at 38% RISP on sheer volume โ 13 aboard, ZERO rally-killers, a Power 4โ0 sweep. The new class of the East. |
| James W | 15 | 10.0 | +5.0 | A 70-run statement built on a Speed 4โ0 whitewash. The scariest ceiling in the West, even with five rally-killers. |
| xpoes | 13 | 8.6 | +4.4 | Finally cashed one โ beat a run-line favorite (anurag) outright at 38% RISP, Contact swept 3โ0. Rohan G's ghost roster on the right side at last. |
| Fez_Keyreb | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 | Lost by a run but beat its number again, cleanest order in the game (one rally-killer). Advik S breakout. Arrow up hard. |
| (Stitch)ยฒ | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | Ground out the lowest-scoring win of the week, a shade over xR โ even on hits (9โ9) with jonathan, but just two rally-killing outs to jonathan's six. Low volume still makes it fragile. |
| GidTheKid2 | 10 | 9.6 | +0.4 | Par-plus and a 60% RISP night โ and still lost a game they were favored in. A Power 0โ4 sweep against them was the whole story. |
| sumin | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3 | Right on its number, won the 2-point war on a 70% RISP night and an Eye 3โ1. Most complete East club. |
| jonathan | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | Matched Stitch on hits (9โ9) and RISP (56%โ56%) in the lowest-scoring game but made six rally-killing outs to Stitch's two โ that gap was the entire margin. The West cellar. |
| anurag | 8 | 9.2 | โ1.2 | Laid โ1.5 as a favorite and lost by three to xpoes โ came in under its own xR. The East's contribution to the books' worst week. |
| czz | 6 | 8.8 | โ2.8 | Co-leads the West on record and got blasted by 70 โ six rally-killers, a Speed 0โ4. The ugly-wins team got exposed. |
| Connor Chang | 6 | 10.0 | โ4.0 | 17% RISP on a short lineup, run by 108. Kian D's ceiling is real; availability is the whole story. |
note: raw hit totals shown as the run baseline for the ledger; game line scores below are scaled to a nine-inning ballgame, winner and margin order preserved.
six games on the card this week โ one a merged makeup between (Stitch)ยฒ and jonathan, reported as a single result; only dan.k.memes and ChessFun had an off day.
The result the whole week hangs on. The books laid Connor Chang as a road favorite, and cryo ran them by 108. cryo was untouchable โ 15 aboard against an xR of 8.5 (+6.5), the biggest overperformance of the week โ sweeping vs Pen 3โ0 and Contact 2โ0 and pounding Power, Eye and Smallball for three apiece. suzuko (he; 3 hits) set the pace.
Connor's half is the availability story, again. A short lineup cashed just 17% with runners in scoring position (1 of 6) and came in at 6 vs 10.0 (โ4.0); their lone pulse was a Speed 3โ1. The model priced Kian D's ceiling and a skeleton order priced reality. It's the worst line the books have posted all season.
A 70-run statement. James W overperformed at 15 vs 10.0 (+5.0), headlined by a Speed 4โ0 whitewash and a Smallball 2โ0. akhil paced it with a week-high 4 hits (though three rally-killers came with the volume). The scariest ceiling in the West, on full display.
czz co-leads the division on record and got run off the field. A club that wins ugly and deep came in at 6 vs 8.8 (โ2.8), was blanked in Speed (0โ4) and Smallball (0โ2), and killed six rallies โ and none of it was offset by a fine 67% RISP night on just six baserunners. The depth-and-ugly-wins team finally got exposed by real talent.
The purest expression of the week's throughline. mingle/Yunyi won at just 38% with runners in scoring position โ because it put 13 aboard against an xR of 8.0 (+5.0) with ZERO rally-killing outs and swept the Power zone 4โ0. roshan (3 hits, the year's fastest first-pitch at 16) set the tempo. Efficiency lost to volume, and mingle staked a claim to the East's top seed.
Gid was the road favorite and lost outright. They were par-plus (10 vs 9.6, +0.4) on a clean 60% RISP night and even swept vs Pen 3โ0 โ but a Power 0โ4 against them wiped it out. Monish S (2 hits) led, but full-ish strength and favored, they still couldn't close. Talent, no finish.
The lowest-scoring game of the week (140 raw total). Played across two halves that were meant to be one and reported merged (78โ62 raw), this was a taut, even grind โ (Stitch)ยฒ and jonathan finished dead even on hits (9โ9) and on RISP (56%โ56%), and both came in slightly OVER their expected runs (Stitch 9 vs 8.4, jonathan 9 vs 8.9). Nobody buried the offense โ the empty-frame rate was a normal 5 of 23. pancreas uvula was the top bat.
The whole margin was discipline at the plate. jonathan made six rally-killing outs to Stitch's two โ in a game this tight, every wasted at-bat was the ballgame. Even on identical hits and RISP, that four-out gap is the entire final margin. edwin h couldn't offset it. The West cellar, undone by its own outs.
The closest game of the week, a one-run war to the final out. sumin edged it on efficiency โ a 70% RISP night (7/10) and an Eye 3โ1 that flipped a tie into a win โ landing right on its number (10 vs 9.7, +0.3). Lucas W (3 hits) carried the deepest, most complete order in the East.
Fez should feel this one. They actually beat their number (10 vs 8.4, +1.6), played the cleanest game on the card (one rally-killer), and won the Speed zone 3โ1 behind an Advik S breakout (2 hits). A run short, but this is a club whose arrow is pointing straight up. Pair that discipline with volume and it's a problem for the East.
The Seanjay game, and the week's second favorite to get run-lined. The books laid anurag โ1.5 and watched xpoes beat them by three. Same throughline as the top of the card: xpoes won at just 38% with runners in scoring position because it put 13 aboard against an xR of 8.6 (+4.4), sweeping Contact 3โ0 and taking Speed 3โ1. Rohan G's ghost-roster act โ a team-high 3 hits โ finally landed on the winning side.
anurag was the favorite and came in cold. They finished under their own number (8 vs 9.2, โ1.2), their only real pulse a Power 2โ1, and Sean (2 hits) couldn't carry it. A โ1.5 chalk beaten outright โ the East's contribution to the books' worst week of the year.
All 14 clubs after Week 5, both leagues. Records first, but the takes lean on xR โ who's really as good as their line score. Two clubs had an off day this week; a good record isn't buried for an idle slate, but there's no new mark to grade.
EAST
| # | Club | The Read |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | mingle/Yunyi | 3โ1, +184, best in the East. Won at 38% RISP on sheer volume (+5.0, zero rally-killers, a Power 4โ0). The new class of the conference. |
| 2 | sumin | 3โ1, +130. Survived a one-run war with Fez on a 70% RISP night and an Eye 3โ1. The most complete East club. |
| 3 | dan.k.memes | 3โ1 but โ74 and on an off day this week. The record still outruns the run differential โ regression watch, no new mark. |
| 4 | xpoes | 2โ3, โ8. Finally cashed one โ beat a run-line favorite (anurag) outright, Rohan G's ghost roster on the right side at last. Best differential of the pack below the top three. |
| 5 | GidTheKid2 | 2โ3, โ166. Same record as xpoes on a โ158-worse differential; full-ish strength, favored, and lost a division game as a Power 0โ4 sank them. Talent, no closing. |
| 6 | Fez_Keyreb | 1โ3, โ12, but lost by a run and beat its number (+1.6) with an Advik S breakout and the cleanest order on the card. Arrow up hard. |
| 7 | anurag | 1โ3, โ54. Laid a โ1.5 favorite's egg, losing to xpoes by three โ the East's contribution to the books' worst week. Came in under its own xR. |
WEST
| # | Club | The Read |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | cryo | 3โ2, +174. A 108-run demolition, +6.5 over xR, vs-Pen and Contact sweeps. Clear No. 1 in the conference now. |
| 2 | James W | 3โ1, +166. A 70-run statement, Speed swept 4โ0, akhil a week-high 4 hits. The scariest ceiling in the West. |
| 3 | czz | 3โ2, โ74. Co-leads on record but got blasted by 70 (โ2.8, six rally-killers, a Speed 0โ4). The ugly-wins team, exposed. |
| 4 | ChessFun | 2โ2, โ42, on an off day this week. Holding pattern; the rotation's still the question. No new mark. |
| 5 | (Stitch)ยฒ | 2โ2, โ168. Ground out the merged 6โ3 win over jonathan, but the โ168 diff and low volume make it fragile. |
| 6 | Connor Chang | 1โ3, +22. Kian D's ceiling is real, but they got run by 108 at 17% RISP. Availability is the whole story. |
| 7 | jonathan | 1โ3, โ78. Ran itself out of a winnable grind โ six rally-killing outs, though it matched Stitch on hits and RISP. The West cellar. |
The oddsmakers' worst week of the year โ just 3 of 6 on direction, and both double-digit favorites lost outright. The season's worst line was Connor Chang as a road favorite: they got run-ruled by 108 at 17% RISP on a short lineup โ the model priced Kian D's ceiling, availability priced reality. The second cooked chalk was anurag โ1.5, a big favorite beaten outright by xpoes when a full-strength order finally showed. GidTheKid2 was favored and lost by two to mingle, and sumin laid the number and won by only a run (right side, no cover). The books cashed where the class showed โ James W and (Stitch)ยฒ both covered. The lesson for next week is loud โ keep fading double-digit chalk whose number rides one star's ceiling or an assumed full roster; availability is still the lever the books can't price.
| Player | Club | Hits | Rally-killers | First-pitch avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| roshan | mingle/Yunyi | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| akhil | James W | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| Advik S | Fez_Keyreb | 2 | 0 | 36 |
| Lucas W | sumin | 3 | 1 | 27 |
| suzuko | cryo | 3 | 1 | 26 |
| pancreas uvula | (Stitch)ยฒ | 2 | 0 | 19 |
โก Fastest to the plate: mingle's roshan jumped the first pitch quicker than any top bat this week (16), with (Stitch)ยฒ's pancreas uvula right behind (19). Rally-killers: jonathan's and czz's six-out meltdowns headlined the week โ two clubs whose discipline at the plate, not talent, decided their night.
The two new No. 1 seeds are on a collision course, the East's logjam beneath mingle and sumin keeps tightening, and the availability questions that wrote this week's worst line still hang over the West. Exact fixtures aren't locked, so the outlook stays on the storylines, not invented matchups.
The top of the West, and the marquee the whole league wants. cryo just posted a +6.5, 108-run demolition to seize the No. 1 seed; James W answered with a +5.0, Speed-4โ0 statement of its own. Two new conference leaders, two of the scariest ceilings in the building โ whoever wins this owns the West at the midpoint.