Pool play is complete, and the bracket is set. The regular-season finale ran six games that clinched every one of the eight playoff berths, settled two seeds on the finest tiebreak the league has โ total runs scored, not run differential โ and buried three clubs in each conference. The headline was a 14โ13 shootout with ZERO empty frames, the season's highest-scoring game, that put xpoes into the last East slot. We grade every club that took the field against expected runs (xR): the runs a side should have plated given exactly who filled out the lineup card and how each zone stacked up. The season's verdict is blunt โ the clubs that chronically beat their xR are the ones hosting in October; the ones that fell short are going home.
For every club that took the field we simulate the runs it should have plated given the exact lineup that dressed and each side's zone strength, then stack it against what actually crossed the plate. Positive = overperformed; negative = underperformed. Two clubs โ GidTheKid2 and czz โ had an off day and did not take the field; they get no new mark this week.
| Club | Runs (raw hits) | Expected (xR) | ฮ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| dan.k.memes | 14 | 8.6 | +5.4 | The biggest overperformance of the week and a Smallball 4โ0 close-out; Varyan J set the fastest first-pitch of the slate (16). Clinched the East No. 1 seed. |
| (Stitch)ยฒ | 13 | 8.3 | +4.7 | A 106โ38 run-rule with a Speed/Smallball/vs-Pen triple-sweep grabbed the last West seed. Volatile all year, but the pulse showed up when it had to. |
| xpoes | 13 | 8.7 | +4.3 | Out-hit a 90%-RISP club 13 to 10 and swept Eye 4โ0 to win the season's highest-scoring game. Rohan G's 8-hit night grabbed the last East seed by 20 runs of season offense. |
| jonathan | 11 | 7.5 | +3.5 | Came in well over xR on Edwin H's 28-run, 8-hit farewell โ and lost by 28 anyway at 27% RISP. Individual fireworks, team math that never closed. Eliminated, West cellar. |
| James W | 12 | 9.4 | +2.6 | Contact 3โ1 and Speed 3โ1 edges in a chippy finale that ended Connor's season. Best run differential in the league (+254). The West's clear No. 1 seed. |
| Fez_Keyreb | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | Shot a 90% RISP (9/10) and beat its number โ and still lost by a run. The most talented 1-win club you'll ever see; the volume never matched the finishing. |
| mingle/Yunyi | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 | Par-plus on the night, but coasted with the seed locked and got run by an eliminated anurag. Still the East's best differential (+210) and the No. 2 seed. |
| anurag | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | Played spoiler to the No. 2 seed behind a vs Pen 3โ0 sweep โ a week too late. Eliminated on the runs tiebreak; 20 runs of offense from the postseason. |
| Connor Chang | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | Right on its number in a five-rally-killer scrap, but James W had the volume. The 122-run ceiling never stabilized; eliminated. Kian D deserved better. |
| cryo | 11 | 11.1 | โ0.1 | Dead on its (highest) number with a Speed 4โ0 sweep and just one rally-killer. Quietly excellent all year (+202); the club nobody wants to draw. Locked the No. 2 seed. |
| sumin | 8 | 9.7 | โ1.7 | Swept 0โ4 in Smallball and run by 7 to close, under its own xR. Streaky โ but the 504 runs held the No. 3 seed on the tiebreak. Any single game is winnable. |
| ChessFun | 6 | 9.1 | โ3.1 | Cratered 3-plus under xR and got run-ruled by 10 in the finale โ swept in Speed, Smallball and vs Pen. The rotation questions never got answered. Out. |
note: raw hit totals shown as the run baseline for the ledger; game line scores below are scaled to a nine-inning ballgame, winner and margin order preserved. seeding tiebreak is wins โ total runs scored.
six games on the finale card โ every result clinched a berth or a seed; GidTheKid2 and czz had an off day.
The signature game of the season and a win-and-in. xpoes won a 14โ13 slugfest with ZERO empty frames โ no tossup went to waste all night โ overperforming at 13 vs 8.7 (+4.3) behind an Eye 4โ0 sweep. Rohan G was the whole leverage of the week: 8 hits, 28 runs, one rally-killer, out-gunning an absurd conversion night to grab the last East seed.
Fez should ache over this one. They cashed a video-game 90% with runners in scoring position (9/10) โ the best RISP line of the year โ and beat their number (10 vs 8.8, +1.2) and still lost by a run, because xpoes simply plated more baserunners, 13 hits to 10. Advik S (4 hits) led a short order. On the highest-scoring game of the season, volume beat the best conversion line of the year.
A 106โ38 run-rule that grabbed the West's final seed. (Stitch)ยฒ overperformed at 13 vs 8.3 (+4.7) on a Speed 3โ0, Smallball 2โ0 and vs Pen 3โ0 triple-sweep. pancreas uvula (6 hits, 20 runs) paced the rout that turned a โ228 season differential into a seed-clincher. Volatile all year, but the pulse was real when the season was on the line.
ChessFun came in 3-plus under xR (6 vs 9.1, โ3.1), the worst mark on the card, and made four rally-killing outs. Eric L (4 hits) was the only real bat. Run-ruled to close a season the rotation questions never got answered. Out.
The No. 1 seed clincher. dan.k.memes posted the week's biggest overperformance โ 14 vs 8.6 (+5.4) โ swept Smallball 4โ0, and beat sumin by 7. Varyan J (7 hits) jumped the first pitch quicker than anyone on the card (avg 16) to pace it. The โ6 season differential says the wins are narrow, but 5 of 6 is 5 of 6, and this one looked the part.
sumin came in under its number (8 vs 9.7, โ1.7) and was swept in Smallball, but the 504 runs on the season held the No. 3 seed on the tiebreak. alphazom (3 hits) led a quiet order. Streaky to close โ but the roster can still win any single game.
The West's No. 1 seed, sealed by eliminating Connor. James W overperformed at 12 vs 9.4 (+2.6) on Contact 3โ1 and Speed 3โ1 edges. akhil (5 hits) had the volume. Both sides made five rally-killing outs โ a chippy game โ but James's bats had the depth. The league's best run differential (+254) hosts in October.
Connor landed right on its number (10 vs 9.4, +0.6) behind Kian D (6 hits) but couldn't match the volume. The 122-run ceiling that defined the season never stabilized; a five-out night ended it. Kian D deserved better.
The No. 2 seed clincher. cryo sat dead on its (highest) number โ 11 vs 11.1 (โ0.1) โ swept Speed 4โ0, and made just one rally-killing out. Edward (4 hits) led a balanced order. Quietly excellent all year (+202); the club nobody wants to draw in the bracket.
jonathan actually beat its xR (11 vs 7.5, +3.5) on Edwin H's ("potential man") 8-hit, 28-run farewell โ and lost by 28 anyway, cashing just 27% with runners in scoring position (3/11). The season in miniature: individual fireworks, team math that never closed. Eliminated.
The eliminated club that played spoiler. anurag beat the No. 2 seed by 5 behind a vs Pen 3โ0 sweep, landing just over its number (10 vs 9.1, +0.9). Sanjay Suresh (6 hits) provided the volume. Out on the runs tiebreak โ 20 runs of season offense short of the bracket โ but they made the East's true No. 1 feel it a week too late.
mingle was par (10 vs 9.0, +1.0) but coasted with the seed locked, making four rally-killing outs at just 30% RISP. theenash s (6 hits) kept it respectable. This was the ceiling club idling โ the +210 differential is still the East's best, and the No. 2 seed hosts sumin next.
Final regular-season standings, all 14 clubs, both leagues. Order is playoff seed, then the eliminated clubs by finish. Records first, but the takes lean on xR โ who's really as good as their line score. The bracket is set; two clubs had an off day this week, so there's no new mark to grade, but a locked seed isn't buried for an idle slate.
EAST
| # | Club | The Read |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | dan.k.memes | 5โ1, the No. 1 seed. The โ6 differential says the wins are narrow, but 5 of 6 is 5 of 6 and a Smallball 4โ0 close-out (+5.4) looked the part. Hosts xpoes. |
| 2 | mingle/Yunyi | 4โ2, No. 2 seed and still the league's best differential in-conference (+210). The anurag loss was a coast with the seed locked; the ceiling is the East favorite. Hosts sumin. |
| 3 | sumin | 3โ3, No. 3 seed on 504 runs. Streaky โ a 7-run loss to close โ but the roster can win any single game. Travels to mingle. |
| 4 | xpoes | 3โ3, No. 4 seed, and the story of the week: won a 14โ13 slugfest to grab the last spot by 20 runs of season offense. Rohan G is carrying them into a date with the 1-seed. |
| 5 | anurag | 3โ3 but eliminated on the tiebreak (468 runs). Played spoiler to mingle a week too late; 20 runs of offense from the postseason. |
| 6 | GidTheKid2 | 2โ4, on an off day, out. Harry Gao came back but the rally-killing outs sank the season. |
| 7 | Fez_Keyreb | 1โ5, out โ and yet scored 554 runs (3rd-most in the East) and cashed 90% RISP in the finale. The most talented 1-win club you'll ever see; the volume never matched the finishing. |
WEST
| # | Club | The Read |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James W | 5โ1, No. 1 seed, +254 differential (best in the league). Closed by eliminating Connor; akhil's season was the West's best. Hosts (Stitch)ยฒ. |
| 2 | cryo | 4โ2, No. 2 seed. Quietly excellent (+202); a Speed 4โ0 close-out. The club nobody wants to draw. Hosts czz. |
| 3 | czz | 4โ2, No. 3 seed on the tiebreak. Wins ugly (โ14 differential) and often; on an off day but locked into a date at cryo. |
| 4 | (Stitch)ยฒ | 3โ3, No. 4 seed. Went from โ228 to a 12โ2 seed-clincher; volatile, but the pulse is real. Travels to James W. |
| 5 | Connor Chang | 2โ4, eliminated. The 122-run ceiling never stabilized; lost the play-in to James W. Kian D deserved better. |
| 6 | ChessFun | 2โ4, out. Run by 10 in the finale; the rotation questions never got answered. |
| 7 | jonathan | 1โ5, out. Edwin H's 28-run farewell was the season in miniature: individual fireworks, team math that never closed. |
No lines were posted for this makeup finale, so instead of a weekly grade, the season summary: the game-line model closed the pool schedule having called direction on roughly 3-in-5 games โ solid, but humbled twice by the same lesson (it underprices home cooking and overprices a single star's ceiling). Its best signal all year was expected runs (xR): the clubs that consistently beat their xR (mingle/Yunyi, James W, cryo) are exactly the top seeds, and the ones that chronically fell short (jonathan, ChessFun) are the ones going home. The full season breakdown โ and a championship simulation off these seeds โ lands in the season report.
| Player | Club | Runs | Hits | Rally-killers | First-pitch avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rohan G | xpoes | 28 | 8 | 1 | 27 |
| Edwin H | jonathan | 28 | 8 | 1 | 18 |
| Varyan J | dan.k.memes | 24 | 7 | 1 | 16 |
| Sanjay Suresh | anurag | 20 | 6 | 1 | 23 |
| pancreas uvula | (Stitch)ยฒ | 20 | 6 | 1 | 29 |
| Advik S | Fez_Keyreb | 16 | 4 | 0 | 28 |
โก Fastest to the plate: dan's Varyan J jumped the first pitch quicker than any top bat this week (16), with jonathan's Edwin H (18) right behind. Cleanest order: Fez's Advik S was the lone marquee bat with zero rally-killing outs โ and, fittingly, on the club that shot 90% and still lost.
Pool play is done; all eight seeds are locked. The quarterfinals are within conference, higher seed hosts: dan.k.memes v xpoes and mingle/Yunyi v sumin in the East; James W v (Stitch)ยฒ and cryo v czz in the West. Winners advance to the conference finals, then the two league champs meet in the Grand Final โ East vs West, for the $1,000.
The two No. 1 seeds โ dan.k.memes and James W โ host their quarterfinals, and the two best run differentials (mingle +210, James W +254) look like the favorites to reach the Grand Final. But the bracket is littered with landmines: xpoes rides Rohan G into the 1-seed on the hottest form in the East, cryo is the +202 club nobody wanted to draw, and (Stitch)ยฒ just turned a โ228 season into a 12โ2 seed-clincher. A full championship simulation off these seeds is in the season report.