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NSBA4 · Week 7 Recap · regular-season finale · with expected-coverage (xGets) analytics

Week 7: The Bracket Is Set

xpoes won a 128–122 shootout to grab the last East seed, (Stitch)² clinched the West's, and the #1 seeds (dan.k.memes, James W) closed the pool 5–1 — the bracket is set.

The regular season is over. The final pool games locked all eight playoff seeds, settled two photo-finish tiebreakers, and sent three names home. xpoes won a 128–122 shootout — the highest-scoring game of the year, with zero dead tossups — to grab the last East seed by twenty points of offense, while (Stitch)² ran ChessFun off the floor 106–38 to claim the West's #4. Up top, both #1 seeds closed the pool at 5–1: dan.k.memes in the East, James W in the West with the league's best differential. The tiebreak that decided it all was total points scored — not differential — and it left anurag twenty points short of the postseason despite a 3–3 record. The bracket is set.

📈 Three things the box score hides:
• Total points, not differential, decided the seeds. The East's three 3–3 teams were separated by raw points scored: sumin (504) > xpoes (488) > anurag (468) — so sumin seeded 3rd, xpoes 4th, and anurag missed by 20 points of offense across seven weeks. Cruelly, Fez_Keyreb scored 554 — more than sumin — but at 1–5 it never mattered. Points are the tiebreak, not the lifeline.
• Efficiency without volume still loses. Fez_Keyreb shot a video-game 90% bonus (9/10) in the 128–122 loss to xpoes and STILL lost — xpoes simply out-bought them 13 gets to 10 and out-scored a 90% night. On the season's highest-scoring game (ZERO dead tossups), volume beat the best conversion line of the year.
• The eliminated teams played spoiler. anurag (already out) beat the #2 seed mingle/Yunyi 82–54, and Edwin H ("KINETIC MAN," 28 pts, 8 gets) dropped a monster in jonathan's loss. With seeds on the line for their opponents, the teams with nothing left to play for swung two results.

🏈 Game-by-Game

clinched East #4
xpoes 128 — 122 Fez_Keyreb
Decided by: a shootout with ZERO dead tossups — GAME OF THE WEEK

The highest-scoring game of the season, and a win-and-in. xpoes won a 128–122 shootout in which every single tossup was answered — no dead balls all game — by out-buying Fez at the buzzer: 13 gets against an xGets of 8.7 (+4.3), an Earth/Space 4–0 sweep, and Rohan G's 28-point, 8-get masterclass out-gunning an absurd 90% bonus night. It clinches the last East seed.

Fez_Keyreb shot a video-game 90% bonus (9/10) — the best conversion line of the year — and still lost. They came in above their number too (10 vs 8.8, +1.2), but two negs and three fewer gets was the whole margin. Advik S's 4 gets led it. The most talented 1-win team you'll ever see poured in 122 in a game they couldn't win: efficiency without the volume to back it.

xGETS xpoes 13 vs 8.7 (+4.3) · Fez 10 vs 8.8 (+1.2)
zone battle [xpoes v Fez] Bio 1-3 · Chem 2-1 · CS 1-3 · ESS 4-0 · Math 3-1 · Phys 2-2
bonus 62% (8/13) · 90% (9/10)   negs xpoes 1 · Fez 2   top Rohan G 8 (28 pts) · Advik S 4
dan clinches East #1
dan.k.memes 98 — 58 sumin
Decided by: a Math 4–0 sweep and a fast-trigger closeout

The #1 seed stated it. dan.k.memes closed the pool with a 40-point win on the back of a Math 4–0 sweep and a big +5.4 over its xGets (14 gets). Varyan J paced it with 7 gets at an average buzz word of 16 — the fastest of the week. It's the East's top seed at 5–1, and it earned the bye-free path with a closeout that looked the part.

sumin lost by 40 but had already done the work that mattered: 504 points on the season banks the #3 seed on the tiebreak. On the night it came in under xGets (8 vs 9.7, −1.7) and converted just 38% bonus; alphazom's 3 gets led it. Streaky to the end — the roster can win any single game, but this was the flat one.

xGETS dan.k.memes 14 vs 8.6 (+5.4) · sumin 8 vs 9.7 (−1.7)
zone battle [sumin v dan] Bio 2-2 · Chem 1-3 · CS 3-1 · ESS 1-3 · Math 0-4 · Phys 1-1
bonus 36% (5/14) · 38% (3/8)   negs dan.k.memes 2 · sumin 1   top Varyan J 7 · alphazom 3
spoiler — beats the #2 seed
anurag 82 — 54 mingle/Yunyi
Decided by: a Chem 0–4 and Physics 3–0 beatdown of a coasting side

Spoiler night. anurag — already eliminated — knocked off the East's #2 seed by 28, whitewashing two subjects: a Chemistry 0–4 and a Physics 3–0 beatdown of a mingle side that had nothing to clinch. Sanjay Suresh led it with 6 gets. Both sides finished right on their xGets (anurag +0.9, mingle +1.0) — this wasn't a buzzer explosion, it was mingle coasting into a game it didn't need.

mingle/Yunyi seeded #2 in the East regardless and still owns the league's best point differential (+210); the loss was a coast, not a crack. But four negs to anurag's two didn't help, and theenash s's 6 gets couldn't cover the Chem shutout. A tune-up gone sideways, with the seed already in the bank.

xGETS anurag 10 vs 9.1 (+0.9) · mingle 10 vs 9.0 (+1.0)
zone battle [anurag v mingle] Bio 1-2 · Chem 0-4 · CS 2-2 · ESS 2-1 · Math 2-1 · Phys 3-0
bonus 50% (5/10) · 30% (3/10)   negs anurag 2 · mingle 4   top Sanjay Suresh 6 · theenash s 6
James W clinches West #1
James W 98 — 70 Connor Chang
Decided by: Chemistry and CS edges in a chippy game

The West's #1 seed closed the pool by ending a season. James W won by 28 on a Chemistry 3–1 and Computer Science 3–1 pair of edges, finishing +2.6 over its xGets (12 gets). It was chippy — both sides negged five — but akhil's crew had the volume to survive it. James W clinches the top seed and the league's best differential (+254).

Connor Chang played it close for a half but is out. The 122-point ceiling never stabilized, and here they landed on their number (10 vs 9.4, +0.6) while Kian D (6 gets) tried to keep pace. Five negs in a one-possession-feeling game was the difference; a talented side eliminated in the play-in. Kian D deserved better.

xGETS James W 12 vs 9.4 (+2.6) · Connor 10 vs 9.4 (+0.6)
zone battle [James W v Connor] Bio 1-2 · Chem 3-1 · CS 3-1 · ESS 1-3 · Math 1-2 · Phys 3-1
bonus 58% (7/12) · 50% (5/10)   negs James W 5 · Connor 5   top akhil 5 · Kian D 6
Stitch clinches West #4
(Stitch)² 106 — 38 ChessFun
Decided by: a CS / Math / Physics triple-sweep

The seed-clincher of the week, and it was a rout. (Stitch)² won by 68 by whitewashing three whole subjects — a Computer Science 3–0, Math 2–0, and Physics 3–0 triple-sweep — and beating its xGets by a huge +4.7 (13 gets). pancreas uvula's 6 gets led the demolition that grabbed the last West seed. From −228 a week ago to a 106–38 statement; the pulse is real.

ChessFun's season ends run by 68. They managed just 6 gets against a 9.1 expectation (−3.1) — the biggest shortfall of the slate — and gave back four negs on a night the rotation questions finally caught up with them. Eric L's 4 gets was the lone bright spot. The talent flashed all year; the answers never came.

xGETS (Stitch)² 13 vs 8.3 (+4.7) · ChessFun 6 vs 9.1 (−3.1)
zone battle [(Stitch)² v ChessFun] Bio 2-2 · Chem 1-2 · CS 3-0 · ESS 2-2 · Math 2-0 · Phys 3-0
bonus 54% (7/13) · 50% (3/6)   negs Stitch 4 · ChessFun 4   top pancreas uvula 6 · Eric L 4
cryo locks West #2
cryo 90 — 62 jonathan
Decided by: a Computer Science 4–0 sweep

The 2-seed, locked. cryo won by 28 on the back of a Computer Science 4–0 sweep, cruising to the West's #2 seed even as it landed right on its number (11 vs 11.1, −0.1). Edward's 4 gets led it. Quietly excellent all year (+202) and now the team nobody wants to draw in the bracket — a clean, professional closeout.

jonathan lost by 28 but went out firing: Edwin H ("potential man") dropped a 28-point, 8-get farewell that carried the whole side +3.5 over its xGets (11 gets). The math still never closed — three negs and a 27% bonus night — and it's the West cellar at 1–5. Individual fireworks, team arithmetic that never added up: the season in one line.

xGETS cryo 11 vs 11.1 (−0.1) · jonathan 11 vs 7.5 (+3.5)
zone battle [cryo v jonathan] Bio 0-3 · Chem 2-2 · CS 4-0 · ESS 2-2 · Math 2-2 · Phys 1-2
bonus 45% (5/11) · 27% (3/11)   negs cryo 1 · jonathan 3   top Edward 4 · Edwin H 8 (28 pts)

📊 Power Rankings

Final regular-season rankings, both conferences, ordered by playoff seed then eliminated teams by finish. Byes this week: GidTheKid2, czz. The bracket is set; the takes below are how each team walks into (or out of) the postseason.

EAST

#TeamThe Take
1dan.k.memes5–1, the #1 seed. The −6 point-diff says the wins are narrow, but 5 of 6 is 5 of 6, and a Math 4–0 close-out looked the part. Hosts xpoes.
2mingle/Yunyi4–2, #2 seed and still the league's best point-diff (+210). The anurag loss was a coast with the seed locked; the ceiling is the East favorite. Hosts sumin.
3sumin3–3, #3 seed on 504 points. Streaky — a 40-point loss to close — but the roster can win any single game. Travels to mingle.
4xpoes3–3, #4 seed, and the story of the week: won a 128–122 shootout to grab the last spot by 20 points of offense. Rohan G is carrying them into a date with the 1-seed.
5anurag3–3 but eliminated on the tiebreak (468 pts). Played spoiler to mingle a week too late; 20 points of offense from the postseason.
6GidTheKid22–4, on bye, out. Harry Gao came back but the six-neg games sank the season.
7Fez_Keyreb1–5, out — and yet scored 554 points (3rd-most in the East) and shot 90% in the finale. The most talented 1-win team you'll ever see; the buzzer volume never matched the finishing.

WEST

#TeamThe Take
1James W5–1, #1 seed, +254 diff (best in the league). Closed by eliminating Connor; akhil's season was the West's best. Hosts (Stitch)².
2cryo4–2, #2 seed. Quietly excellent (+202); a CS 4–0 close-out. The team nobody wants to draw. Hosts czz.
3czz4–2, #3 seed on the tiebreak. Wins ugly (−14 diff) and often; on a bye but locked into a date at cryo.
4(Stitch)²3–3, #4 seed. Went from −228 to a 106–38 seed-clincher; volatile, but the pulse is real. Travels to James W.
5Connor Chang2–4, eliminated. The 122-point ceiling never stabilized; lost the play-in to James W. Kian D deserved better.
6ChessFun2–4, out. Run by 68 in the finale; the rotation questions never got answered.
7jonathan1–5, out. Edwin H's 28-point farewell was the season in miniature: individual fireworks, team math that never closed.

💹 Model — Season Report Card

No lines were posted for this makeup week, so instead, the ledger: the game-line model closed the pool season having called direction on roughly 3-in-5 games — solid, but humbled twice by the same lesson, that it underprices home court and overprices a single star's ceiling. Its best signal all year was xGets: the teams that consistently beat their expected tossups — mingle/Yunyi, James W, cryo — are exactly the top seeds, and the teams that chronically fell short — jonathan, ChessFun — are the ones going home. The full season breakdown, and a championship simulation off these seeds, lands in the season report.

⭐ Players of the Week

🏆 Player of the Week: Rohan G (xpoes) — 28 points, 8 gets, 1 neg in a 128–122 shootout that CLINCHED xpoes's playoff berth. The highest-leverage individual line of the week: an Earth/Space 4–0 sweep and the volume to out-gun a 90%-bonus opponent in a win-and-in. Honorable mention to Edwin H ("potential man," jonathan): 28 points, 8 gets in a season-ending loss — fireworks with nothing left to play for.
PlayerTeamPtsGetsNegsAvg buzz word
Rohan Gxpoes288127
Edwin Hjonathan288118
Varyan Jdan.k.memes247116
Sanjay Sureshanurag206123
pancreas uvula(Stitch)²206129
Advik SFez_Keyreb164028

⚡ Fastest trigger: Varyan J's average buzz word of 16 beat every other top scorer to the packet — the tempo behind dan.k.memes's #1-seed closeout. Highest leverage: Rohan G's 28-point, 8-get night was the only top line that came in a win-and-in — and it out-gunned a 90% bonus to put xpoes in the bracket.

🔮 The Playoffs

Pool play is done; the bracket is set. Eight teams remain, four per conference, seeded by wins then total points scored. The quarterfinals (host listed first): dan.k.memes v xpoes and mingle/Yunyi v sumin in the East; James W v (Stitch)² and cryo v czz in the West. Winners advance to the conference finals, and the two conference champions meet in the Grand Final — East champ v West champ — for the $1,000.

👀 Bracket storylines:  • The two 1-seeds host, and the two best point-diffs look like the favorites. dan.k.memes and James W earn home floor, but mingle/Yunyi (+210) and James W (+254) — the top two differentials in the league — are the numbers that project deepest.  • Can a #4 seed keep the run going? xpoes rode a 128–122 shootout in, and (Stitch)² went from −228 to a 68-point clincher — both are peaking at exactly the right time.  • The team nobody wants to draw: cryo (+202, a CS 4–0 close-out) is the quiet #2 that could spoil the West's chalk. A full championship simulation off these seeds is in the season report.