The regular-season finale settled everything. Every team's sixth game is in, and by the final whistle the last pool games had locked all eight playoff seeds, decided two photo-finish tiebreakers, and sent three names home. We're grading every offense against xPts one last time โ the scoring a side should have produced given exactly who dressed and how strong each zone group was โ and the season's clearest signal held to the end: the teams that consistently beat their xPts are exactly the ones playing in January. The bracket is set; the pool season is over.
For every offense we simulate the scoring it should have produced given the exact personnel that dressed and each side's zone strength, then compare to what it actually put up. Positive = overperformed (moved the ball more than the matchup implied); negative = underperformed. In the finale it's the cleanest way to see who really earned the seeds.
| Team | Actual scores | Expected (xPts) | ฮ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| dan.k.memes | 14 | 8.6 | +5.4 | A Third-down 4โ0 sweep and the week's biggest overperformance closed the pool at 5โ1. Varyan J's 7-play, fastest-trigger night paced it. The East's No. 1 seed. |
| (Stitch)ยฒ | 13 | 8.3 | +4.7 | A screen / third-down / deep-ball triple-sweep in a 38โ10 rout that grabbed the last West seed. Volatile all year, but the pulse showed up when it mattered. |
| xpoes | 13 | 8.7 | +4.3 | Out-drove a 90%-red-zone opponent 13 scores to 10, swept special teams 4โ0, and won the 31โ28 shootout that clinched the East's final seed. The story of the week. |
| jonathan | 11 | 7.5 | +3.5 | Beat its number hard on Edwin H's 28-point, 8-play farewell โ and it meant nothing at 1โ5. Individual fireworks, team math that never closed. |
| James W | 12 | 9.4 | +2.6 | Short-pass and screen edges in a 31โ17 close-out that ended Connor's season and clinched the West No. 1. akhil's crew had the season's best rรฉsumรฉ. |
| Fez_Keyreb | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | Shot 90% in the red zone and still lost by three at 1โ5. The most talented one-win team you'll ever see; the buzzer volume never matched the finishing. |
| mingle/Yunyi | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 | Par-plus in a coast โ the seed was already locked when anurag ran them 27โ13. Still the league's best differential (+210) and the East 2-seed. |
| anurag | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | Played spoiler to the No. 2 seed with a deep-ball 3โ0 beatdown โ a week too late. Eliminated on the tiebreak by 20 points of offense. |
| Connor Chang | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | Right on its number in a chippy five-turnover game, and lost the play-in to James W. Kian D deserved better; the 122-point ceiling never stabilized. |
| cryo | 11 | 11.1 | โ0.1 | Exactly on expectation and won by 14 anyway on a screen 4โ0 sweep. Quietly excellent all year (+202); the West 2-seed nobody wants to draw. |
| sumin | 8 | 9.7 | โ1.7 | Under its number in a 34โ14 loss to close โ but 504 points banked the East 3-seed on the tiebreak. Streaky; can win any single game. |
| ChessFun | 6 | 9.1 | โ3.1 | Run by 28 in the finale โ the worst mark of the week, three zone sweeps against it. The rotation questions never got answered. Eliminated. |
The game of the week, and the season's highest-scoring one. xpoes was +4.3 over xPts (13 scores vs 8.7) in a shootout with not a single punt, swept special teams 4โ0, and rode Rohan G's 28-point, 8-scoring-play night to clinch the East's final seed. It out-drove Fez 13 scores to 10 and out-scored the best conversion line of the year.
Fez_Keyreb converted an absurd 90% in the red zone (9/10) โ the finishing was flawless โ and still lost by three, because the buzzer volume never matched it. Advik S (4 scoring plays) led it. At 1โ5 with 554 points on the year, the most talented one-win team you'll ever see is going home; efficiency without volume still loses.
The biggest beating of the week grabbed the last West seed. (Stitch)ยฒ was +4.7 over xPts (13 scores vs 8.3) and triple-swept the screen, third-down and deep-ball groups in a 28-point rout. pancreas uvula (6 scoring plays) led it โ the pulse the volatile club had been promising all year, showing up in a win-and-in.
ChessFun laid the worst mark of the week: 6 scores against a 9.1 expectation (โ3.1), three zones swept against it, and a season that ends without the rotation questions ever getting answered. Eric L (4 scoring plays) was the top line. Run by 28 in the finale โ eliminated.
The East's No. 1 seed closed the pool in style. dan.k.memes was +5.4 over xPts (14 scores vs 8.6) โ the biggest overperformance of the week โ on a third-down 4โ0 sweep. Varyan J's 7 scoring plays (average tempo 16, the fastest trigger of the week) paced a 20-point close-out. Five of six is five of six: dan hosts xpoes in the quarters.
sumin was under its number (8 vs 9.7, โ1.7) in a 34โ14 loss to close โ but 504 points on the year banked the East 3-seed on the tiebreak. alphazom (3 scoring plays) was the top mark. Streaky to the end, but the roster can win any single game โ and it dodged the bullet.
The West's best rรฉsumรฉ closed with a statement. James W was +2.6 over xPts (12 scores vs 9.4) on short-pass and screen 3โ1 edges, clinching the West No. 1 and ending Connor's season. Both sides turned it over five times โ a chippy one โ but akhil (5 scoring plays) and the volume decided it.
Connor Chang was right on its number (10 vs 9.4, +0.6) and lost the play-in. Kian D (6 scoring plays) went out swinging, but the 122-point ceiling never stabilized into a floor. Eliminated โ Kian D deserved better.
Quietly excellent to the end. cryo was dead-on its number (11 vs 11.1, โ0.1) and won by 14 anyway on a screen 4โ0 sweep, locking the West 2-seed. Edward (4 scoring plays) led a team nobody wants to draw (+202 on the year).
jonathan actually beat its number (11 vs 7.5, +3.5) โ because Edwin H (“potential man”) dropped a 28-point, 8-play farewell โ and it still lost by 14 at 1โ5. The season in miniature: individual fireworks, team math that never closed. The season's over.
The week's loudest spoiler. anurag โ already eliminated โ ran the No. 2 seed 27โ13, leaning on a deep-ball 3โ0 while the short pass went the other way. Both offenses were near their xPts; this was mingle coasting with the seed locked. Sanjay Suresh (6 scoring plays) led the spoiler.
mingle/Yunyi was par-plus (10 vs 9.0, +1.0) but turned it over four times and had nothing to play for. theenash s (6 scoring plays) kept it respectable. Still the league's best differential (+210) and the East 2-seed โ but a reminder that a team with nothing to lose can swing a game. anurag misses the bracket by 20 points of offense.
All 14 teams after the regular-season finale, both conferences. Order is playoff seed, then the eliminated teams by finish. The takes lean on xPts โ who's really as good as their result โ and the pool season is now complete. Byes this week: GidTheKid2, czz.
EAST
| # | Team | The Take |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | dan.k.memes | 5โ1, the No. 1 seed. The โ6 differential says the wins are narrow, but 5 of 6 is 5 of 6, and a third-down 4โ0 close-out looked the part. Hosts xpoes. |
| 2 | mingle/Yunyi | 4โ2, No. 2 seed and still the league's best differential (+210). The anurag loss was a coast with the seed locked; the ceiling is the East favorite. Hosts sumin. |
| 3 | sumin | 3โ3, No. 3 seed on 504 points. Streaky โ a 20-point loss to close โ but the roster can win any single game. Travels to mingle. |
| 4 | xpoes | 3โ3, No. 4 seed, and the story of the week: won a 31โ28 shootout to grab the last spot by 20 points of offense. Rohan G is carrying them into a date with the 1-seed. |
| 5 | anurag | 3โ3 but eliminated on the tiebreak (468 pts). Played spoiler to mingle a week too late; 20 points of offense from the postseason. |
| 6 | GidTheKid2 | 2โ4, on a bye, out. Harry Gao came back, but the multi-turnover games sank the season. |
| 7 | Fez_Keyreb | 1โ5, out โ and yet scored 554 points (3rd-most in the East) and shot 90% in the finale. The most talented one-win team you'll ever see; the volume never matched the finishing. |
WEST
| # | Team | The Take |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James W | 5โ1, No. 1 seed, +254 diff (best in the league). Closed by eliminating Connor; akhil's season was the West's best. Hosts (Stitch)ยฒ. |
| 2 | cryo | 4โ2, No. 2 seed. Quietly excellent (+202); a screen 4โ0 close-out. The team nobody wants to draw. Hosts czz. |
| 3 | czz | 4โ2, No. 3 seed on the tiebreak. Wins ugly (โ14 diff) and often; on a bye but locked into a date at cryo. |
| 4 | (Stitch)ยฒ | 3โ3, No. 4 seed. Went from a season-worst diff to a 38โ10 seed-clincher; volatile, but the pulse is real. Travels to James W. |
| 5 | Connor Chang | 2โ4, eliminated. The 122-point ceiling never stabilized; lost the play-in to James W. Kian D deserved better. |
| 6 | ChessFun | 2โ4, out. Run by 28 in the finale; the rotation questions never got answered. |
| 7 | jonathan | 1โ5, out. Edwin H's 28-point farewell was the season in miniature: individual fireworks, team math that never closed. |
No lines were posted for this makeup finale, so instead, the report card. The game-line model closed the pool season having called direction on roughly 3-in-5 games โ solid, but humbled twice by the same lesson: it underprices home field and overprices a single star's ceiling. Its best signal all year was xPts: the teams that consistently beat their expected scoring โ mingle/Yunyi, James W, cryo โ are exactly the top seeds, and the teams that chronically fell short โ jonathan, ChessFun โ are the ones going home. The full season breakdown, and a championship simulation off these seeds, lands in the season report.
| Player | Team | TDs | Scores | TO | Avg tempo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rohan G | xpoes | 5 | 8 | 1 | 27 |
| Edwin H | jonathan | 5 | 8 | 1 | 18 |
| Varyan J | dan.k.memes | 4 | 7 | 1 | 16 |
| Sanjay Suresh | anurag | 3 | 6 | 1 | 23 |
| pancreas uvula | (Stitch)ยฒ | 3 | 6 | 1 | 29 |
| Advik S | Fez_Keyreb | 2 | 4 | 0 | 28 |
โก Quickest strike: dan.k.memes's Varyan J (tempo 16) beat every other top scorer to the line โ the fastest trigger of the week. Farewell fireworks: Edwin H's 28-point, 8-play night for eliminated jonathan matched the Player of the Week's line โ individual brilliance, nothing left to play for.
Pool play is done; the bracket is set. Both conferences seed 1โ4, quarterfinals within conference (host listed first): dan.k.memes v xpoes, mingle/Yunyi v sumin, James W v (Stitch)ยฒ, cryo v czz โ conference finals โ the Grand Final (East champ v West champ) for the $1,000. The two No. 1 seeds (dan.k.memes, James W) host; the two best point differentials (mingle +210, James W +254) look like the favorites.
(1) dan.k.memes v (4) xpoes ยท (2) mingle/Yunyi v (3) sumin
(1) James W v (4) (Stitch)ยฒ ยท (2) cryo v (3) czz