Live Intel (Discord)
Live Intel (from David's Discord pastes)
Hand-fed by David from the NSBA server. Opponent behavior + domain hypotheses we can exploit/test. Mark inferences clearly; verify named players against the canonical roster once parsed.
Opponent-GM model
- Anurag (a.new.rag) — rival GM, drafting "on vibe," explicitly NOT using analytics.
- Believes the meta is specialists; self-IDs as a chem / phys / energy specialist ("best energy specialist there is"). NOTE: Energy is not an NSBA category (CS replaced it) — so his self-described edge is partially in a category that doesn't score in NSBA. Possible blind spot.
- Thinks reading the combine packets (not just the scores) gives extra signal — he may correctly fade/boost players that score-only GMs misread. Don't assume rivals only see scores.
- CS take: "just pick one MIT cs major and you're good," or Rohan / Vishnu for CS.
- Exploit: if the field drafts on vibe/specialist heuristics and undervalues analytics + proper VONA timing, mispriced players (esp. tankers and undervalued generalists) fall to us.
- GidTheKid2 (Gideon) — top SB player, graduated, won NSBA1. Strong domain prior (below).
- Connor Chang floated grabbing Connor Zhao in free agency — watch the FA angle (FAs allowed before the last regular-season matchweek; count toward a 6-player limit). Confirm FA rules vs. last yr.
Gideon's roster-composition hypothesis (TESTABLE — feed to A14 + A16)
A concrete "optimal roster by grade + category complementarity" claim from a domain expert: - ESS main: sophomore. - Bio player: junior, with some ESS/trivia — specifically astro (since the ESS main leans earth, not space) → complementary ESS coverage. - Captain: deep in physics + math, senior optimal. - Chem main: junior, complements the chem-y parts of physics, quick with numbers. - Bench: physics or math — physics intuition preferred (leans toward the sciences) over speedy math.
Why this matters: it's a falsifiable hypothesis we can test against NSBA1–3 outcomes — (a) do grade/development curves favor those positions at those years? (b) does category complementarity (bio+astro, chem+phys) actually raise win-share vs. pure specialists or pure generalists? This sharpens A16 from "generalist vs specialist" to also test specific complementary pairings, and gives A14 concrete grade-by-role predictions to check.
Named players to resolve (verify against canonical roster)
- Rohan, Vishnu — floated as CS options (Vishnu M / Rohan G appear in NSBA3/NSBA4 combine tabs).
- Connor Zhao — potential free agent.
- "an MIT cs major" — identify who in the pool fits (CS scarcity target).
Action items this generated
- [ ] A16: add a complementary-pairing test (bio+astro, chem+phys), not just generalist-vs-specialist.
- [ ] A14: test Gideon's grade-by-role predictions against historical performance.
- [ ] Build a lightweight opponent model for the draft simulator (A22): assume rivals draft on combine rank + specialist bias; quantify the value we extract by being contrarian/analytical.
- [ ] Ask David to save any images Gideon shared (screenshots/data) into
data/raw/if he wants them analyzed — I can't see Discord images.
A5 Discord-intel highlights (full report: research/A5_discord_intel.md; CSV: data/processed/discord_player_signals.csv)
- Combine "biking" (see D12): prebuzzing/late-MC-guessing is openly +EV; honest skippers under-scored. Combine = gamed ceiling, not a floor.
nocombomomentonotes "cs is unbikable" — CS may be the least gameable category (good: cleaner signal there). - Confirmed cheater:
santhosh_b.(caught "biking" + leaking) — discount his ~15 entirely. - Prime buy-low / suspected tank:
deasert_willow= Ziang (bio/cs), posted a 7; peers call him "genuinely sandbagging"/"a tank." High-status returning officer → underpriced. (Note: also flagged a likely captain — reconcile, since a tanked score shouldn't auto-captain.) - Returning stars:
draoethar/Edwin (college, "the goat," improved after college),abat48/Akhil (last-yr captain),solvior,varnite,nocombomomento. - CS scarcity CONFIRMED — barely anyone credible. Draftable CS strength:
nocombomomento,deasert_willow(Ziang);eagle_studentelite but staff-tier. (Matches Anurag's "Rohan/Vishnu/MIT-major" tip.) - Availability conflicts:
shamp0off 5/31–6/13 (camp);i.cansleep/Rehan &theshubaminatorin India (IST);suminyysummer travel (declined captaincy);alkalintflaky. College players mid-finals this week (a.new.rag,eagle_student,c0nn0r70,.jiggle._.) = temporary dip, not true availability risk. - Likely captains (shape the board): Edwin, Akhil, Ziang, Anurag (WADF officer clique).
- Friend packages: WWPS group (
89.8farmers/crow0748/abat48/grb5128) want to be drafted together; Edwin↔Rehan have a "you cap, draft me" deal. - Staff-tier / non-draftable: Anurag, Jonathan, Mingle, Naveen-23, Cryo/Bennett, eagle_student,
xpoes(David) — flagged in CSV; exclude from the draftable board.