NSBA4 · Modeling

The league stress-tested the new AI stats bot on launch. We rated every question for how interesting it was, then wrote deep-dives on the six best. Start here.

usmic (NSBA3) went 0–6 at −84.8/game — including the only sub-zero final score ever recorded.

Career vs. peak: Anurag Sodhi is the all-time value king; arolakiv owns the greatest single season.

Port a Season-1 legend into today's faster league: pace-adjusted, he'd still lead NSBA4 at ~31 ppg.

Era-adjusted, NSBA2 fielded the strongest top-5 in league history. NSBA1 has the dissenting case.

Re-draft with only each GM's first two snake picks: Cryofornia Gurls win; round-2 whiffs sink the #1 pick.

The greatest specialist in each of the six subjects, across every season of NSBA.

Very detailed, end-to-end explanation of the whole pipeline: seed ratings, the Elo-style update, the tossup-contest simulation, home-court ban, line-making, and player props — with the formulas.

Ten chapters of PhD-desk science-bowl theory from the full season: the parity principle, volume vs efficiency, the neg tax, subject tempos, home court, the draft signal, leaderboards, and a 50k-run championship simulation. Share one link: /nsba/season-report.html.

Final seeds (wins → total points), the QF/SF/Final bracket, and a 50,000-run Monte-Carlo championship sim. East: dan.k.memes/mingle/sumin/xpoes · West: James W/cryo/czz/(Stitch)². /nsba/playoff-picture.html.

Hub linking the science-bowl recap + NBA/NFL/Soccer/Baseball reskins + player ratings. "The Bracket Is Set" — xpoes won a 128–122 shootout for the last East seed, (Stitch)² clinched the West's, pool play complete. /nsba/week7.html.

Hub linking the science-bowl recap + NBA/NFL/Soccer/Baseball reskins, xGets coverage, refreshed playoff picture, category kings & player ratings. "The Bracket Locks" — home teams went 5–1, three chalk favorites lost outright, six of eight playoff spots clinched, GidTheKid2 & jonathan out. Share one link: /nsba/week6.html.

Hub linking the science-bowl recap + NBA/NFL/Soccer/Baseball reskins, xGets coverage analytics, plus the refreshed playoff picture & category kings. "The Model Gets Cooked" — two double-digit favorites lost outright (−9 by 108, −13 by 18), the losers negged themselves out of it, mingle/Yunyi & cryo the new #1 seeds. Share one link: /nsba/week5.html.

Hub linking the science-bowl recap + NBA/NFL/Soccer/Baseball reskins, xGets coverage analytics, and SofaScore-style player ratings (plus a soccer match-ratings cut). "The Blowout Week" — mingle 144–2, Fez 140–34, xpoes two-man. Share one link: /nsba/week4.html.

Hub linking the science-bowl recap + NBA/NFL/Quant/Soccer/Baseball reskins, now with xGets coverage analytics, plus NFL & Baseball play-by-play Game Centers. "The Contenders Crack." Share one link: /nsba/week3.html.

Single shareable hub linking the science-bowl recap + NBA / NFL / Quant reskins. "Order Restored" — favorites went 4–1, jonathan's 7 negs, mingle's 130, roshan POW. Share one link: /nsba/week2.html.

The shareable, analytical writeup — bonus conversion, category sweeps, the Harry-G no-show, market movements, players of the week, Week 2 outlook. Lives at /nsba/week1-recap.html (not under /nsba4, so sharing it doesn't expose this hub).

The same recap reskinned as an NBA writeup — buckets, free throws, shot zones, DNPs. Same data and names, zero science bowl. Public at /nsba/week1-nba.html.

The recap as an NFL writeup — scoring drives, red-zone %, offensive phases, inactives, bye weeks. Same data and names. Public at /nsba/week1-nfl.html.

The recap as a trading-desk P&L report — books, monetization/capture, asset-class attribution, blow-ups, a League Table. Bloomberg-terminal look. Public at /nsba/week1-quant.html.

The recap as a matchweek review — goals, clinical finishing, areas of the pitch, giveaways, squad omissions, no fixtures. Broadcast-pink look. Public at /nsba/week1-soccer.html.

The recap as a box-score wrap — runs, RISP/clutch hitting, at-bats by category, rally-killers, late scratches, off days. Red ballpark look. Public at /nsba/week1-baseball.html.

The recap as an Olympiad round — 4-board team matches (4–0, 2½–1½), board-by-board results, converting winning positions, blunders, board-1 defaults, byes, board medals. Gold tournament look (and yes, ChessFun plays chess). /nsba/week1-chess.html.

Win probability, point spread, and over/under. Post-Week-2 ratings → tossup simulation → home category ban; auto-blends with the platform market once it opens. Released game-by-game — (Stitch)² @ Connor Chang up first; the rest follow as more stats land.

Win probability, point spread, and over/under for each Week-2 game. Model-only: post-Week-1 ratings → tossup simulation → home category ban.

Projected per-player tossups and points for each game, with over/under points lines.

Per-player, per-subject ability (θ). Seed = combine + draft; updated by Week-1 buzz results (direct attribution). These are the input the simulation runs on.

Drive-by-drive recap of all six games using the real chronological sequence — early leads, the decisive runs, turnovers, comebacks. /nsba/week1-nfl-gamecenter.html

Inning-by-inning recap of all six games from the box score — rallies, lead changes, rally-killers, the moment each turned. /nsba/week1-baseball-gamecenter.html

Player/team season-long prop markets (records, over/unders).

Per-team draft evaluation from the preseason combine + value model.

The opening Week-1 lines (preseason: combine + draft + market futures, before any game data).